Accurate market prediction indicates sideways consolidation, grasping the main sector trends.

Thursday pre-market article clearly stated that there would be no significant rebound, and that the market is likely to enter a sideways consolidation and gradual rise. Today’s sharp decline was actually expected; I didn’t think it would be so harsh, but luckily, most of our stocks are still in the green, with only one down 0.5%. Everyone knows that although the gains aren’t huge, in a drop below 4,500, it’s quite good, and my account is slightly profitable.

Brothers and sisters, don’t look for all kinds of reasons for the decline. There is really only one reason: it’s a slow bull market. GJD doesn’t want to move too fast. For example, if GJD has a mission to only rise 800 points a year, how it rises is someone else’s concern. Anyway, I want a slow bull. The slow bull view has appeared more than once in official media. It’s clear that the big A-shares are re-creating the US stock market from 20 years ago. So, any big decline in the big A-shares is an opportunity, a golden pit.

Of course, a slow bull is actually harder to profit from than a bear market, especially for aggressive short-term traders. Chasing hot spots often leads to being buried. For trend traders, it’s also tough because you need to hold on. Looking back at BYD, Buffett made dozens of times profit. Does Buffett keep doing T+0? Does Buffett often BS? Recently, over the past two years, Yi Zhongtian and Han Wang also saw tenfold gains, but there were big drops, bad news, black swans, and even many small declines of a few centimeters. Who can hold through that? Only a very few can hold on. Those who buy don’t look at the market, and they can’t sell all their holdings at once.

Many sectors and stocks have been held for years without making money, let alone recovering. For example, in medicine, real estate, liquor, etc., many veteran investors and old funds are still holding, and some have been cut in half or lost even more, still holding to this day.

Recently, many of our brothers and sisters experienced stocks like Changfei, Yingweike, Demingli, Yuanjie Technology, which I repeatedly mentioned last year when my market cap was between 15 billion and 30 billion. Who can hold on? Who can grasp? Honestly, I couldn’t hold on all the time. I don’t have that ability. People can’t control themselves. Knowing and doing are easy to say but very hard to do.

Looking back, there are opportunities in the big A-shares. Human greed is infinite. There are stocks that double in the short term, and trend stocks that can multiply many times over longer periods. This fuels everyone’s greed. When the market rises, endless reports attract countless novices to enter, and they become part of the greed. Those making money want to keep earning; those losing money want to buy more to recover losses. The more they lose, the more unwilling they are. Even if they close their accounts, they are still attracted by bullish market reports.

Today, I just want to say that, ultimately, you should either find someone who has experienced countless storms and truly has the ability to learn from them—his thinking, his model—and develop your own system. When you profit, you make more; when you lose, you lose less, so you can survive.

Or, if you only chase hot spots without understanding the logic of the stocks you buy, without deeply researching them, and just follow the market trend and hot sectors blindly, then just close your account and never come back. This market isn’t suitable for you. Those short-term traders who profit might be one in ten thousand or even one in a million. They also went through multiple big losses to realize this. These are lessons learned through blood and tears, with real money—something simulated trading can’t replicate.

If you lack patience and your money isn’t idle, I advise you: as long as your account still has numbers, cut your losses and walk away. If you’re holding large-cap growth stocks in tech sectors, don’t worry. Wait a few months or a year until the sector rotates and prices surge to your target, then close your account and exit. This kind of predatory, ruthless market isn’t suitable for you. In big A-shares, it’s not about who can make more money, but about who can sustain long-term. Especially now, the era of gaming funds is over, and the era of quantitative trading is shining.

People are greedy, so advice is useless. I’ll just say one point: no matter when or where, keep up with the times and follow the trend!

That’s all I want to say today. Everyone understands the principles and rules; it’s just that greed is overwhelming. There’s no way around it. So, let’s return to the market.

The conflict in the Middle East will still impact the market, but systemic black swans won’t reappear. The slow bull market must continue. Any external influence can become a reason for big drops in big A-shares, which is normal. That’s the slow bull—always allowing retail investors to get on board, exit at any time, and sometimes cut losses. Occasionally, retail investors can profit, and the process is smooth and flawless.

Since both the US and Iran have made conditions and our Minister Wang has said both sides are open to negotiations, it’s clear there is room for easing tensions. The meaning is that no matter how intense the conflict, talks can happen until everyone accepts an agreement.

I judge that tomorrow, Friday, the market will likely open lower and test the lows. That dip is actually a golden opportunity, and then it will gradually consolidate and strengthen.

Regarding sectors:

Electric Power: I mentioned before the market opened on Thursday that electric power would retreat. I said this on Wednesday too—funds are starting to withdraw. Those who listened had a chance to exit on Wednesday. On Thursday, many electric power stocks surged red, and there was a chance to take profits at any time. In my view, when the risks outweigh the benefits, I won’t participate. This isn’t stock trading; it’s gambling, and nine out of ten bets lose.

Of course, I still remain optimistic about the electric power sector and expect it to rebound repeatedly. But I will wait for a correction and a second wave before re-entering.

Storage: When the market dropped in the afternoon, storage stocks remained steady from the morning, showing continued confidence from inside funds and ongoing support from outside funds. This is a good sign, even though overall sector funds are flowing out, following the market trend.

On the news front, North American storage stocks have fallen for two days, mainly due to Google’s announcement of the AI memory compression algorithm TurboQuant. The key point is that the “8 times” compression is relative to the old 32-bit unquantized models. Currently, mainstream AI inference uses 4-bit quantization to optimize efficiency. So, the actual improvement in real applications will be more moderate than 8 times. Also, large-scale deployment in AI data centers is expected to take several months to about a year, still in early stages from lab to industry. Validation, integration, and optimization are needed before commercial use. TurboQuant only affects inference-stage key-value caches, not model weights stored in HBM, and is unrelated to training.

It’s worth noting that, despite the short-term decline in US storage chip stocks like Micron, many Wall Street institutions, including Morgan Stanley, believe the market overreacted. They cite the “Jevons paradox,” suggesting that efficiency improvements lower AI application costs and could stimulate greater demand, making the long-term impact on memory hardware neutral to positive. Overall, TurboQuant’s principles and initial effects are validated, but large-scale deployment in AI data centers still requires academic publications, community follow-up, industry integration, and testing.

In the worst case, our big A storage module companies like Demingli and Baiwei mainly produce NAND flash, and TurboQuant doesn’t compress model weights stored in NAND. So, their core business remains safe. The decline in US storage stocks mainly impacts server DRAM manufacturers like Micron.

In the long run, this technology could be a positive, as Google’s innovation reduces the cost of running large models. AI that only big companies could afford before is now accessible to small companies, even smartphones and cars. This will drive massive demand for AI applications, which require large amounts of storage chips. Demingli and Baiwei, which produce these storage chips, might see increased demand.

Long-term, this technology lowers the barrier to AI, potentially opening a bigger market for Demingli and Baiwei, which is a good thing.

April marks the start of the intensive disclosure period for Q1 2026 and FY2025 reports. Storage module companies’ Q1 results will be impressive, so institutional and long-term funds remain optimistic.

Commercial Aerospace: I mentioned before the market open on Thursday that there would be a rebound, mainly benefiting core suppliers like Western Aerospace. Western Aerospace hit the limit-up as expected, but it didn’t drive the entire sector. Commercial aerospace remains dull. So, a rise to the S point is just a short-term spike. On Friday, you can exit after the surge. After the first quarter reports, the sector can still be participated in. Just wait for the right timing.

Humanoid Robots: Stay tuned, good news is coming soon. The sector will develop one by one.

Oil, Chemicals, Shipping, Energy: As always, you can’t control politics or predict war outcomes. Stop and avoid getting caught in the crossfire. Don’t do things outside your understanding. Sometimes you might get rich, but overall, look at your account and you’ll see the truth.

Remember: only with the right people can the process be comfortable and the results good.

This is just my personal investment opinion, not any investment advice. The market carries risks; invest cautiously.