CSI Red Dividend ETF (515080) rises against the trend; institutions recommend buying dividend assets on dips, with medium- to long-term prospects still supported.

On the morning of March 24, the three major A-share indices opened higher and then fell back. The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) initially surged but then showed a volatile upward trend, rising 0.51% as of the latest report.

Affected by overseas conflicts, the energy sector did not follow the traditional safe-haven rally under geopolitical tensions in the morning. Instead, it collectively pulled back, mainly due to a rapid market sentiment reversal. As a result, coal, oil, and petrochemical sectors experienced varying degrees of decline. Within the CSI Dividend Index, the pattern showed “defensive utilities leading the charge, while cyclical energy retreated”: Shandong Expressway rose over 4%, with Jiangsu Bank, Tubaobao, Yongxing Materials, and Nanjing Bank also gaining, while Shenhuo Coal, Yuntianhua, China National Petroleum, and Sinopec led the declines.

On the capital side, positive signals emerged. The CSI Dividend ETF (515080) demonstrated an opposite trend by attracting funds: over the past five trading days, it absorbed 400 million yuan, and over the past ten days, 1 billion yuan, indicating active capital inflows into dividend assets.

Analysis indicates that in the short term, the market is in a phase of oscillation and bottoming out, with the defensive value of dividend sectors continuing to stand out. Data shows that as of March 23, the latest dividend yield of the CSI Dividend Index reached 5.03%, compared to the 1.83% yield of the 10-year government bond, creating a yield spread of 3.2%. The high dividend yield combined with sustained net capital inflows significantly enhances the sector’s allocation value.

From a allocation perspective, the current mainstream strategy is gradually shifting toward a “dumbbell” approach: one end focusing on high-growth sectors like AI to seek flexibility, and the other heavily weighting high-dividend dividend assets to strengthen defensive foundations. The CSI Dividend Index covers sectors such as coal, oil, transportation, electricity, and utilities, which are resistant to inflation and technological iteration, making it highly suitable for a dumbbell strategy. It is expected to serve as a “buffer” against market volatility.

Additionally, the HALO trading logic (heavy assets with low淘汰率) continues to ferment, with sectors like power, utilities, transportation infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, and steel potentially offering new opportunities. These industries tend to have stable profits and continuous dividends, supported by increased domestic infrastructure investment policies and ongoing industry profit improvements.

Caitong Securities states that the current overseas “stagflation-like” trading logic is gaining momentum, and investors can consider low-buying opportunities in dividend assets. In the short term, the market may still need to wait for stabilization signals, but the medium to long-term fundamentals of the A-share market remain supportive, maintaining a relatively optimistic outlook. Institutions suggest focusing on high-dividend assets, especially in coal, oil, and transportation sectors; also, paying attention to sectors benefiting from HALO trading logic such as power, utilities, transportation infrastructure, non-ferrous metals, and steel, to seize relevant allocation opportunities amid market fluctuations.

Data shows that the CSI Dividend ETF (515080) tracks the CSI Dividend Index, a benchmark for high-dividend assets in A-shares. The index mainly selects 100 stocks with high cash dividend yields, continuous dividends for three years or more, and certain market size and liquidity. It is weighted by dividend yield to reflect the overall performance of high-dividend stocks in the A-share market.