UBS warns: The current oil price increase could be more disruptive to the U.S. economy than the previous high oil price cycle.

Questioning AI · What current vulnerabilities in the U.S. economy have amplified the impact of rising oil prices?

[Global Finance Comprehensive Report] Recently, UBS released a research report indicating that the U.S. economy is currently facing multiple adverse factors stacking up, and the disruptive effects of this round of oil price increases could far surpass those of the previous high oil price cycle.

Looking back at 2011 to 2014, although international oil prices remained high for a long period, the U.S. shale oil revolution was in a vigorous expansion phase at that time. While high oil prices eroded consumer purchasing power, they also spurred a wave of investment, job growth, and industrial output in the shale oil sector, creating an effective economic hedge. However, after 2014, investment in shale oil in the U.S. sharply declined, and this “buffer” has essentially disappeared.

UBS further pointed out that the current macroeconomic environment in the U.S. differs from the previous high oil price cycle in three key ways: a more weakened labor market, a narrower buffer space for households, and a stronger inflation transmission effect.

According to Daan Struyven, head of Goldman Sachs’ oil market research, the average price of Brent crude oil is expected to reach $110 per barrel between March and April, up from the previous forecast of $98 per barrel, representing a significant increase compared to 2025 levels. Additionally, Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast from $77 to $85 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) expected at $79 per barrel. Meanwhile, long-term oil price expectations have also been revised upward, with the 2027 average Brent crude oil price projected to reach $80 per barrel. (Nan Mu)