"iPhone 4 Surges 60 Times, Vintage Phones Rise to Thousands, The Business Opportunity Behind the Reverse Surge in Old Phone Recycling"

At the beginning of 2026, the domestic old phone recycling market has experienced an unprecedented price surge. Scrap phones that once sold for only 10 yuan per kilogram or per device are now generally quoted at 50-500 yuan, with some models increasing by as much as 50-60 times. "One price a day" has become the industry norm. Recyclers in Jinan, Qingdao, Shenzhen Huaqiangbei, and other areas openly state, "We take any phone." Phones with large memory, flagship models, and vintage types are being snapped up wildly. Some citizens have used 7 old phones to trade in for a second-hand iPhone 11; two non-working old phones sold for 308 yuan, a more than 10-fold increase compared to the same period last year. This "electronic waste turnaround" is not short-term hype but driven by a global imbalance in storage chip supply and demand, explosive AI computing power, and resource revaluation, behind which lie industry chain profits and market risks.
1. Price Surge Overview: From Waste to Hard Currency, All Categories Up Over 2 Times
According to the latest survey by Sina Finance and the Public Daily in March 2026, mainstream second-hand phone recycling prices have surged 2-3 times year-on-year, with large memory models increasing over 300%. Scrap and shattered-screen phones have seen prices rise by 3-5 times. Classic vintage models like the iPhone 4, unopened versions, have been driven up to over 1,000 yuan, a 60-fold increase; older models like OPPO R9 have risen from 20-30 yuan to 150-180 yuan, nearly 8 times; flagship models like the iPhone 15 Pro Max and Huawei Mate60 Pro have seen recycling prices increase by 30%-45% year-on-year.
The market shows three main features: larger memory equals higher value, with a price difference of up to 300 yuan between 64G and 256G models; chip quality determines premiums, with Qualcomm and Samsung chip models exceeding MediaTek by over 15%; prices fluctuate extremely fast, with some models adjusting prices twice a day, and recyclers updating quotes daily. TrendForce data shows that in Q1 2026, domestic second-hand phone disassembly volume increased by 240% year-on-year, and the daily shipment volume of chip trading markets in Huaqiangbei doubled. Disassembled chips are priced at only 40%-60% of brand-new chips, making them the preferred choice for downstream demand.
2. Core Driver: AI Devours Storage Capacity, DDR4 Prices Surge 8.8 Times in One Year
The core logic behind this price increase is the explosive growth of the AI industry causing a structural shortage of global storage chips. AI servers require 8-10 times the storage of ordinary servers. In 2026, 53% of global DRAM capacity is expected to be occupied by AI servers, with HBM demand increasing by over 100% year-on-year. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron have shifted over 70% of their advanced capacity to high-margin HBM high-end storage, significantly reducing or even halting production of consumer-grade chips like DDR4 and LPDDR4, leading to only 40%-50% supply adequacy for civilian storage.
In terms of prices, DDR4 8GB modules reached spot prices of $15 in February 2026, an 8.8-fold increase year-on-year, with an increase of over 369% from the 2025 lows; NAND flash contract prices in Q1 rose to 55%-60%. New chips are hard to obtain, and delivery times are lengthening, forcing downstream AI training, industrial control equipment, and electronic repair industries to turn to disassembled chips, directly boosting the value of old phones. Additionally, the prices of precious metals like gold and palladium are rising; one ton of old phones can extract 200-300 grams of gold and 10-20 kilograms of silver. The "urban mine" economy far exceeds natural mines, further activating the demand for scrap phone recycling.
3. Industry Chain Breakdown: From Individuals to Factories, Multi-level Profit Chains Form
The circulation of old phones has formed a complete profit cycle: individual idle devices → community recyclers → regional wholesalers → disassembly centers like Huaqiangbei → chip refining / precious metal extraction → reuse in AI servers / industrial control equipment.
Front-end recycling: vendors buy old phones at 30%-50% of market price, earning basic margins;
Mid-stage sorting: graded by chip model and memory capacity, with scarce chips priced separately;
Back-end disassembly: automated lines strip memory and motherboards, extracting gold, silver, palladium, and other precious metals, with profits reaching tens of thousands of yuan per ton.
Industry data shows that formal disassembly companies maintain gross margins of 20%-35%, while small workshops with lower costs can achieve higher profits. Notably, vintage models with collectible value are priced independently of chip value, forming a "disassembly value + collectible value" dual pricing system.
4. Market Outlook and Risk Warnings: Q2 Price Growth May Slow, Privacy and Security Concerns
Based on predictions from TrendForce and Morgan Stanley, storage chip prices may stabilize in Q2 2026, with DRAM expected to rise by 40%-50% and NAND by 35%-45%. Old phone recycling prices are likely to remain high but with reduced volatility, making a sharp drop unlikely in the short term. If manufacturers resume small-scale DDR4 production, supply-demand gaps could narrow, further slowing price increases.
Risks include: 1) Price volatility risk—short-term speculation and capacity adjustments may cause prices to plummet; 2) Privacy and security risks—non-regular platforms may not thoroughly erase data, leading to potential information theft; 3) Industry chaos—some vendors may deceive with low prices or false quotes, harming consumer rights.
5. Practical Methods for Ordinary People to Monetize
Official recycling platforms: choose platforms like Aihuishou or Zhuanzhuan, which offer on-site valuation and data wiping—safe, convenient, transparent pricing;
Personal idle device sale: sell intact old phones on platforms like Xianyu, with prices 10%-30% higher than recyclers, suitable for well-maintained devices;
Offline brand stores trade-in: Apple and Huawei official stores offer trade-in discounts and subsidies, suitable for users upgrading to new devices.
This surge in old phone prices reflects the inevitable resource reuse in the AI era and reveals the imbalance in the consumer electronics supply chain and the revaluation of electronic waste environmental value. For ordinary people, turning old phones into cash is a short-term opportunity, but it’s essential to use legitimate channels and thoroughly erase data. For the industry, standardized disassembly, precious metal recovery, and chip reuse will become long-term trends in the electronic circular economy.