Jiecheng Energy: Global oil demand growth is slowing, and the market supply and demand are further showing a loosening trend.

Jiecheng Energy’s chief economist, Yan Jiantao, analyzes that before February 28, compared with market consensus, the increase in international oil prices was higher by $10 per barrel. Of this, a geopolitical premium of $5–8 per barrel has already been factored in, so since March 2 the rise in international oil prices has been relatively moderate.

Shanghai crude oil futures’ increase was first driven by catch-up gains after the Spring Festival. Once the catch-up has already been realized, Shanghai crude oil futures will be even more closely correlated with the more moderate trend in international oil prices. Second, there is also broad panic-driven “chasing highs” in the capital markets. From the perspective of the securities market, the pullback in the share prices of stocks along the oil industry chain reflects a rational adjustment of market sentiment.

In particular, market participants need to note: among the crude oil grades deliverable under Shanghai crude oil futures (INE), Oman crude, UAE Murban crude, and Brazil Tupi crude are the current main delivery cargo sources. Their loading ports are all not within the Strait of Hormuz range, and export routes are not affected by any disruption to navigation through the strait. Geopolitical conflicts have limited impact on their actual supply.

According to statistics from early 2026 through the beginning of March, the export volume proportions of the above oil grades to China are approximately 33%, 6%, and 3%, respectively, totaling a high combined share. They play an important role in stabilizing delivery cargo sources and market expectations. In addition, as crude oil supply volumes from North and South America will increase, market panic sentiment will be further alleviated.

Third, the rise in Shanghai crude oil futures has also been supported by the rapid increase in international oil tanker freight rates. As the freight and insurance markets continuously roll out response measures, freight rates will gradually decline. Fourth, this US–Iran conflict will accelerate the trend toward deglobalization, prompting governments across countries to vigorously develop locally characterized new energy businesses. With global oil demand growth slowing further, market supply and demand will increasingly present a looser picture, and price expectations will revert to the level predicted at the beginning of the year.