Since the outbreak of the conflict, Iran has been earning an average of $170 million more per day from oil sales.

According to industry insiders’ estimates, since the start of the US-Iran war, Iran has likely been earning tens of millions of dollars in additional daily revenue from its oil sales.

As Iran becomes the only major oil exporter in the Middle East able to use the Strait of Hormuz, the price of the crude oil it sells has surged, benefiting Iran’s finances.

Unlike all other Gulf oil-producing countries, Iran’s oil can still smoothly transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and its export volume remains robust. Industry estimates suggest that Iran’s crude oil exports this month have maintained pre-war levels, at about 1.6 million barrels per day. Vessels carrying Iranian crude continue to load at the Khark Island terminal and pass through the Strait of Hormuz out of the Persian Gulf—recent shipping activities are even accelerating.

This stands in stark contrast to the substantial blockades faced by other Gulf oil producers.

According to export estimate data from Tankertrackers.com and the price of Iran’s flagship oil type “Iranian Light,” Iran has been able to earn approximately $139 million daily from the sale of this flagship oil type since March, up from $115 million in February. This also means that since the outbreak of hostilities, Iran has been earning at least an additional $24 million per day (approximately 166 million yuan) from oil sales on average.

Meanwhile, compared to the international benchmark Brent crude, the price of Iranian Light crude has also seen a significant increase—earlier this week, its discount to Brent narrowed to $2.10 per barrel, the lowest level in nearly a year. Prior to the outbreak of the war, this discount had exceeded $10.

A higher price per barrel is crucial for Iran, which has recently suffered significant damage due to US and Israeli airstrikes, and must invest heavily in reconstruction and support for its battered economy. Additionally, Iran’s retaliatory strikes in the Middle East have consumed a large amount of weaponry that needs replenishing.

Khark Island remains a key hub.

Industry insiders point out that as countries like Iraq and Kuwait have been forced to cut production significantly, and the UAE and Saudi Arabia struggle to find alternative export routes, Iran continues to load tankers and send them out of the Persian Gulf.

Iran’s main export hub, Khark Island, has not yet faced US strikes on its oil infrastructure—the US has only targeted military sites there. Satellite imagery search tool Copernicus Browser shows that from March 2 to March 22, there have been almost always very large crude carriers (VLCCs) docked at the port loading cargo.

Moreover, shipping activities seem to be accelerating—images from March 2 show only one supertanker docked at Khark Island, while images from March 7 and 17 show two ships loading cargo. The most recent photo taken last Sunday shows two VLCCs docked, with a third seemingly just having left the loading facilities.

Iran is also exporting crude oil from its Jask terminal, located outside the critical chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite images from March 5 show a supertanker approaching the loading buoy at the facility. A second image taken three days later shows the same ship docked at the buoy.

Crude oil transport from Jask is typically not frequent; since the terminal officially opened in 2021, only five ships have been loaded there.

Last weekend, President Trump threatened that if Iran did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, he would target its energy infrastructure. However, he has since walked back this statement—on Thursday, Trump indicated that at the request of the Iranian government, he would extend the deadline for attacking Iranian energy facilities by 10 days to April 6, in order to avoid escalating the war.

The US Treasury also approved a 30-day authorization on March 20, allowing the delivery and sale of vessels loaded with oil and petroleum products sourced from Iran. The new permit allows for the sale of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products that were loaded onto ships by March 20.

Analysts point out that while the new exemptions from the US regarding Iranian crude may not have temporarily attracted new buyers beyond existing customers, it has undoubtedly pushed up the price of Iranian crude, further narrowing its discount to Brent crude.

(Source: Financial Associated Press)