Afternoon, collective plunge! The Iran situation faces new uncertainties! Trump, latest statement!

Global investors are closely monitoring the developments in Iran!

This afternoon, U.S. stock futures once again plummeted. As of 1:30 PM, Nasdaq futures were down 0.43%, while Dow futures and S&P 500 futures fell by 0.37% and 0.40%, respectively. In the Asia-Pacific stock market, the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext Index all saw declines close to 1%; the Nikkei 225 Index dropped 0.72%, after previously rising nearly 0.90%. Additionally, South Korea’s KOSPI fell by 2.93%, the Pakistan Karachi Index decreased by 0.77%, and Thailand’s SET Index declined by 0.69%.

Gold and silver also experienced a sharp drop. As of this writing, COMEX gold futures fell 1.41%, and silver futures dropped 2.45%; spot gold and spot silver decreased by 0.85% and 1.36%, respectively. Cryptocurrencies also fell collectively, with Bitcoin and Ethereum down over 1%, and Solana down over 3%.

According to the latest news, on March 26, local time, the Israel Defense Forces announced a series of large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran. On the same day, Hezbollah claimed to have used multiple missiles to attack the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defense in downtown Tel Aviv and a facility of Israeli military intelligence north of Tel Aviv.

However, U.S. President Trump has reportedly expressed a desire to end the war quickly. According to a report by the Wall Street Journal cited by Xinhua News Agency on the 25th, President Trump recently told his advisors that he hopes to “quickly” end the war with Iran, aiming to “conclude hostilities in the coming weeks.” The report stated that Trump had mentioned to an advisor that the war was interfering with his ability to advance other priorities.

The U.S. Central Command stated on the 25th local time that the USS Lincoln aircraft carrier continues to conduct air operations targeting military objectives within Iran while sailing in the regional waters. Earlier, the Iranian military stated that the Iranian Navy launched missiles at the USS Lincoln, “forcing it to change its position.”

Meanwhile, Iran is seeking to impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. According to CCTV news, on the early morning of the 26th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s Civil Committee stated, “We are seeking a bill that can legally maintain Iran’s sovereignty, authority, and regulatory rights over the Strait of Hormuz while generating revenue for the country through toll collection.”

It is worth noting that Wall Street institutions are raising their expectations for a U.S. economic recession, partly due to the Iranian war and inflation risks.

IDF Launches Large-Scale Attacks on Iranian Infrastructure

According to CCTV news, on March 26, local time, the Israel Defense Forces announced a series of large-scale attacks on infrastructure in Isfahan, Iran.

On the same day, Hezbollah issued a statement claiming to have used multiple missiles to attack the headquarters of the Israeli Ministry of Defense in downtown Tel Aviv as well as a facility of Israeli military intelligence located north of Tel Aviv.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif stated in an interview with state television on the 25th that the current war is neither Iran’s war nor America’s war, but rather Israel pushing the U.S. into conflict.

Zarif claimed that Israel is the main driver of the war. The primary task of the U.S. is to ensure Israel’s security, and its military deployments in the Middle East aim to protect Israel, sacrificing everything for Israel’s safety. Israel’s goal is to achieve the “Greater Israel Project,” coveting the territories of several countries in the region.

Zarif stated that this war reveals many facts: U.S. military bases in the region have not only failed to ensure the security of host countries but have also become sources of instability; if these countries suffer attacks, it is precisely due to the presence of these bases.

Additionally, according to Xinhua News Agency, the Wall Street Journal reported on the 25th, citing American officials, that Iranian Parliament Speaker Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Zarif have been temporarily removed from the U.S. and Israeli target lists.

The report stated, “As Trump opens the door for high-level negotiations to end the war, Iranian Speaker Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Zarif have been removed from the target list, with a timeframe of 4 to 5 days.”

Recently, U.S. officials have frequently indicated a willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran to end the war, suggesting that the dialogue could include Qalibaf. Qalibaf denied any discussions with the U.S. Zarif stated that there has been no dialogue or negotiations between Iran and the U.S.

In the early morning of the 26th, the chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s Civil Committee stated, “We are seeking a bill that can legally maintain Iran’s sovereignty, authority, and regulatory rights over the Strait of Hormuz while generating revenue for the country through toll collection.”

It is reported that a draft of this bill has already been prepared, but it has not yet reached a complete proposal stage and will be submitted to the parliamentary research center next week for refinement with the legal team’s participation, and it will be followed up after the parliamentary session. According to this bill, Iran will impose tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

In the early hours of the 26th, the Iraqi militia group “Islamic Resistance Organization” issued a statement claiming that within the past 24 hours, the group had launched 23 attacks on U.S. units in Iraq and its surrounding areas using drones. Since February 28, the group claims to have launched 577 attacks on U.S. units.

Wall Street Issues Warnings

Currently, global markets continue to be impacted by the war between the U.S. and Israel against Iran. Wall Street analysts warn that the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East are leading to sustained high oil prices, threatening economic growth, and increasing the risk of a U.S. recession.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, stated in a report, “Downside risks have significantly increased. In this context, we currently assess the probability of a U.S. recession at 40%.” He emphasized that if the Middle Eastern conflict persists longer or worsens, these probabilities could rise rapidly.

The aforementioned economist pointed out that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the increasing risk of oil production damage indicate that the inflation environment will be more persistent, not limited to a temporary spike in energy prices. Daco stated, “If the war escalates and oil prices exceed $100 per barrel, the prices of other key commodities will rise, financial conditions will tighten, and U.S. inflation could rise to around 5%, while real GDP growth could decline by more than 1 percentage point, significantly exacerbating recession risks.”

Daco also noted that AI-driven investment and private credit are vulnerable, as “liquidity pressures may evolve into solvency challenges.”

Other Wall Street institutions are also raising their expectations for a U.S. recession, partly due to the Iranian war and inflation risks. Moody’s Analytics currently assesses the probability of a recession in the U.S. within the next 12 months at 48.6%, while Goldman Sachs has raised this expectation to 30%.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius pointed out that the company’s upward revision of energy prices will raise the overall global inflation rate by about 1% and reduce global GDP growth by 0.4%.

Hatzius wrote, “While the impact of energy on U.S. economic growth may be small, it coincides with tightening financial conditions and a reduction in fiscal stimulus in the second half of the year.” He added, “Therefore, we now expect growth to fall below trend levels, the unemployment rate to rise, and we have slightly increased the probability of a U.S. recession within 12 months to 30%.”

Meanwhile, bettors on the Polymarket platform have increased their bets on the probability of a U.S. recession by the end of 2026 from 23% on February 27 (just before the outbreak of the Iranian war) to 35% this past Wednesday.

Data shows that concerns about rising oil and natural gas prices pushing up short-term inflation have sharply intensified. Currently, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year has surpassed expectations for rate cuts; the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are also expected to raise rates multiple times, with the possibility of starting as early as next month.

Expectations in the European market have reversed dramatically. The day before the outbreak of the geopolitical conflict, UK interest rate futures pointed to a relaxation of 50 basis points (i.e., two rate cuts) by the end of the year. However, within just a few weeks, this expectation reversed to tightening by nearly 75 basis points (i.e., three rate hikes), a swing of as much as 125 basis points, which is quite rare. Meanwhile, Eurozone interest rate futures have also shifted from indicating that the key policy rate would remain unchanged at 2% to pricing in two rate hikes.

Typesetting: Luo Xiaoxia

Proofreading: Liu Xingying