Early warning of Bitcoin pump-and-dump traps, bearish logic continues to realize profits | Exclusive analysis

In last week’s weekly report, we clearly warned that the market was in a bull trap range and advised investors not to blindly chase and add to positions, while keeping our bearish trend judgment unchanged. This week’s market action provided clear validation—Bitcoin failed to effectively break out of the resistance range, followed by a noticeable pullback, and the bearish logic has continued to hold.

The following sections will present this week’s market outlook, recommended trading strategies, and a recap of last week’s trade execution, helping readers find direction and make precise decisions in a complex market.

Weekly Trade Report Key Summary:：

• HYPE short-term trade performance: Last week we completed one short-term long position trade (1x leverage), successfully achieving a return of approximately 4.41%. (Details see Part 2)

• BTC short-term trade performance: Last week we completed one short-term short position trade (1x leverage), successfully achieving a return of approximately 5.37%. (Details see Part 4)

• HYPE this week outlook and trading strategy: See Parts 1 and 2.

• BTC outlook and intraday/short-term trading strategy: See Parts 3 and 4.

• Verification of the core view: Last week, Bitcoin was still in a bearish trend structure. Price action fully matched the forecast, and the bull-trap warning was effectively realized.

1. HYPE Forecast and Trading Strategy

1. Core view for this week:

Based on the current structure, we believe that the ongoing hour-level downward correction that began from the March 19 high (around the endpoint 27) is likely to end in the near term. Going forward, we need to watch whether the price can effectively break free from the range constraint of the central zone C to confirm whether the correction has truly ended. If it can break out effectively, the signal for continuation of the trend will become even clearer. We expect a high probability of wide-range consolidation this week, so in terms of trading, it’s best to stay flexible.

2. Upside risk warning for HYPE:

It’s important to note that although HYPE’s price action has its own independence, it still cannot fully detach from Bitcoin’s broader environment. If Bitcoin shows a significant adjustment afterward, it may weigh on HYPE’s rebound momentum, and investors should remain vigilant and prepare risk contingency plans.

3. Trading strategy for this week:

Use a 30% position size, set a stop-loss point, and, based on support and resistance levels, look for “price spread” opportunities. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the trading cycle.) For execution, keep positions light and flexible, and strictly follow stop-loss discipline.

2. HYPE Weekly Price Structure Analysis and Short-Term Trading Recap

1. Ongoing tracking of HYPE market dynamics and investment opportunities

Since late February, we have continued to track and assess HYPE, and each of our prior judgments has been effectively validated by market price action. Specific recaps are as follows:

• February 23 weekly review: First pointed out that HYPE might enter an investment window, stating that the market was in a Wave II pullback at that time, and forecasting that a Wave III main rally might follow.

• March 3 weekly review: Determined that the low of February 24 at 25.60 USD might be the start point of Wave III, confirming a potential position for a trend shift.

• March 9 weekly review: Noted that price had effectively broken above multiple moving average resistance at the daily level, and then entered a pullback consolidation phase; we expected that after the consolidation ends, there would be a quick upward move.

• March 16 weekly review: Pointed out that at that time, the market was in a Wave III trend, building an ascending central zone (i.e., central zone B). We predicted that once the central zone is formed, the probability of wide-range consolidation would be high.

2. Overview of HYPE daily-level price structure: (based on the evolution after January 21)

The current HYPE daily price action clearly shows a three-wave advancing structure. The characteristics of each sub-wave are as follows:

• Wave I (impulse wave): From the January 21 low of 20.46 USD to the February 3 high of 38.41 USD, lasting 14 days; during this period, the maximum gain reached 87.73%, with strong driving force.

• Wave II (corrective wave): From the February 3 high of 38.41 USD to the February 24 low of 25.60 USD, lasting 20 days; during this period, the maximum drawdown was 33.35%, and the correction magnitude is within a normal retracement range.

• Wave III (main rally wave): From the February 24 low of 25.60 USD to now; the market has run for 27 days, with the maximum gain reaching 71.02%. The main rally trend is still ongoing, and the structure remains well-formed.

3. Detailed HYPE hourly-level subdivision structure: (based on price action after March 16)

HYPE_60-minute K-line chart

Figure one

• Recap of the HYPE hourly-level price structure: As shown, during the latter half of the period from day 9 to day 15, price has been building an upward central zone (i.e., central zone B), and it is already close to being fully formed. Overall, the rhythm matches our prior forecast.

• HYPE hourly-level internal structure breakdown: (03.16～03.22)

a. As shown in (Figure 1), starting from the endpoint 24, the upward central zone that had been built earlier (i.e., central zone B) has been confirmed as fully formed. After that, price evolved into a complex structure consisting of a total of 8 segments: 24-25, 25-26, 26-27, 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32. As of the time of analysis, segment 31-32 is currently in progress, and the structure hierarchy is relatively clear.

b. The upward structure is made up of 3 segments: 24-25, 25-26, and 26-27, and its directional characteristics are relatively clear.

c. The adjustment structure consists of 5 segments: 27-28, 28-29, 29-30, 30-31, and 31-32. The adjustment process shows obvious features of consolidation with contraction (oscillatory convergence).

d. Among them, the three overlapping segments 28-29, 29-30, and 30-31 jointly construct a downward central zone (i.e., central zone C), which is the core range of this adjustment.

4. HYPE short-term trading recap (1x leverage): (03.16～03.22)

Last week, based on the trading signals generated by our self-built price spread trading model and momentum quantification model, combined with our forecast of the upward structure, we completed one short-term (long) trade. We successfully profited 4.41%, and the execution process strictly followed the pre-set plan.

• HYPE short-term trade breakdown summary: (Leverage ×1x)

• Opening decision: This opening decision was based on our forecast that the uptrend would continue after the upward central zone B was formed. The specific trigger signals were that price effectively broke above the central zone’s upper rail resistance (around 38.54 USD), and that both the price spread and momentum quant models issued bullish confluence signals. Multiple lines of evidence combined significantly improved the reliability of the entry timing. Accordingly, we executed a long position at 38.73 USD with a 30% position size.

• Closing decision: Based on the price spread quant model issuing a bearish signal for the top, combined with the technical confluence signal formed by the K-line “strong top pattern”, the top characteristics were clear. Therefore, we executed a full/near-full exit around 40.44 USD, securing the realized profit.

• Trade summary: This trade was successful, yielding approximately 4.41% profit. Both the entry and exit points were effectively supported by model signals, and the strategy execution quality was high.

Figure two

3. BTC this week outlook and trading strategy (03.23～03.29)

1. Analysis of the forecast price action structure for Bitcoin (based on the action after the February 6 low)

Using Bitcoin 4-hour as the analysis period:

• Maintain the prior core analysis framework: The uptrend that started from Bitcoin’s February 6 low (about 60,000 USD) is, in nature, a C-2 wave oversold rebound within a larger degree C-wave correction. Since the rebound nature implies limited upside room, it will be followed by a C-3 wave correction.

• Current structure interpretation: In the 4-hour analysis cycle, the short-term rising structure formed after the February 24 low has been broken. The bulls’ ability to defend at key levels has clearly weakened. If the market cannot reclaim the current support, it may further test the lower bound of the rising channel formed since the rebound from the February 6 low. Once that level fails, the probability that our previously analyzed C-2 wave rebound ends near the recent high around 76,000 USD will increase significantly. In the future, the market may test downward again the 60,000 USD level, and market pressure will become notably heavier. Overall, the market is still dominated by a bearish trend structure.

• Conditions for C-3 wave validity: If the Bitcoin price breaks below the February 6 low (about 60,000 USD), then the C-3 correction wave would be considered valid. At that time, the downside targets would reopen, and you must prepare 대응 plans in advance for how to respond in trading.

Figure three

2. Forecast viewpoints for this week:

Maintain a choppy correction pattern. Pay special attention to the battle between bulls and bears near the channel lower rail (from the February 6 low). Changes in trading volume at that level and the price reaction there will be important evidence for judging the subsequent direction.

3. Core resistance levels:

• First resistance zone: 69,500～71,500 USD (the prior choppy trading range; the main resistance band for short-term rebounds)

• Second resistance zone: 74,500～76,000 USD (near the November 2025 low; an important reference level for the medium-term bearish strategy)

4. Core support levels:

• First support zone: 65,000～66,000 USD (prior important support zone)

• Second support zone: 60,000～62,500 USD (near the February 6 low; if it fails, the bearish structure will be further strengthened)

• Third support level: around 57,400 USD (an important technical reference level below)

5. Trading strategy for this week (excluding the impact of unexpected news):

① Medium-term strategy:

Bitcoin daily K-line chart: (position monitoring model)

Figure four

The position monitoring model shows: currently, the coin price is below the bull-bear drifting band (yellow), and the bearish structure continues to hold. According to the strategy rules, we will continue holding the 60% short position established at 89,000 USD (January 28), and the medium-term direction remains unchanged.

• If the coin price rebounds and effectively breaks above 74,500 USD, reduce the medium-term position to 40% to lower risk exposure.

• If the coin price rebounds and effectively breaks above the bull-bear drifting band and holds above it, then clear the entire medium-term position to zero, and adjust the strategy in line with the trend.

② Short-term strategy:

Use a 30% position size, set a stop-loss point, and, based on support and resistance levels, look for “price spread” opportunities. (Use 30-minute/60-minute as the trading cycle.) Short-term trades must strictly follow stop-loss discipline to avoid letting small losses turn into large ones.

③ Short-term contingency plan A/B:

Because the market’s mid-term direction belongs to a bearish trend, you should adhere to the principle of “trade in the direction of the trend—short.” To dynamically respond to the market’s complex evolution and combined with signals from our self-built trading models, we plan two short-term contingency plans, A/B, for on-site execution reference:

• Plan A: Rebound meets resistance—sell short on the highs.

For scenarios where the rebound strength is limited and resistance levels are clearly met, execute as follows:

• Opening: When the coin price rebounds into the 69,500～71,500 USD range and triggers a resistance signal, and combined with the model’s top signal, a 15% short position can be established.

• Adding to position: If the coin price continues rebounding into the 74,500～76,000 USD range and meets resistance, you can add another 15% short position, scaling in in batches while controlling the average cost.

• Risk control: The initial stop-loss levels for the two short entries are both set above 77,000 USD; execute strictly with no flexibility.

• Closing: When the coin price falls toward an important support zone and, together with model signals, you can gradually close the position to realize profits and avoid the risk of missing a move that can come from going fully flat all at once.

• Plan B: Break down in line with the trend—short after a breakdown.

For scenarios where the coin price keeps falling and a structural breakdown occurs, execute as follows:

• Opening: After the coin price continues adjusting and breaks below the channel lower rail, if it retests that level but cannot hold above it, and combined with the model’s top signal, you can establish a 30% short position in line with the trend, using momentum to expand returns.

• Risk control: Set the initial stop-loss for the short position around 2% above the entry price (i.e., entry price × 1.02), and strictly control the maximum loss.

• Closing: When the price drops to the support level and combined with model signals, gradually close to realize profits.

4. BTC short-term trading recap (03.16～03.23)

1. Short-term trading recap:

We strictly followed the trading signals generated by our self-built price spread trading model and momentum quantification model, and combined them with our forecast of market price action. Last week, we completed one short-term (short) trade, with trading profits of 5.37%. Execution discipline was complete.

① Bitcoin short-term trade breakdown summary: (Leverage ×1x)

② Short-term trading recap：

• Opening: When the coin price rebounded to around 76,000 USD and met resistance, the price spread trading model simultaneously triggered a strong top warning signal (green dots in the chart), and it formed a short-selling confluence with the momentum quantification model. The signals from the two models were highly consistent, and the top pressure characteristics were clear. Based on the confluence of this signal, we established a 30% short position at 74,246 USD; the entry rationale was well supported.

• Closing: When the coin price fell to around 69,000 USD and stabilized, and at the same time the price spread trading model triggered a bottom warning signal and support characteristics initially appeared, we fully closed the position around 70,257 USD, promptly realizing profits.

• Summary: This trade successfully profited by about 5.37%. The bearish direction judgment for the short was accurate, and both entry and exit were supported by model signals. Overall execution quality was good.

2. Medium-term trading recap:

The medium-term strategy remains steadily on track. Continue holding the 60% short position built around 89,000 USD (January 28). As of the close last week (closing price around 67,865 USD), the profit is about 23.75%. During the period, the maximum profit reached 32.58%. The overall performance of the medium-term position has been good.

5. Special Notice

Risk management is the foundation for stable trading profits. Please strictly follow the following execution discipline:

1. At opening: Immediately set the initial stop-loss level.

2. When profit reaches 1%: Move the stop-loss to the entry cost price (break-even point), ensuring principal safety.

3. When profit reaches 2%: Move the stop-loss to the 1% profit level.

4. Ongoing tracking: Thereafter, for each additional 1% profit, move the stop-loss by 1% in sync. Dynamically protect and lock in gains.

Financial markets change rapidly, and all market analysis and trading strategies must be adjusted dynamically. All viewpoints, analytical models, and trading strategies involved in this article originate from personal technical analysis and are only for personal trading logs; they do not constitute any investment advice or basis for action. There are risks in the market; be cautious when investing. Please do not make decisions based on this.