Donghai Securities: Domestic machine tool export unit prices are rising significantly; leading companies' product iterations and upgrades

Zhitong Finance APP learned that Donghai Securities released a research report stating that the machine tool downstream manufacturing industry has broad applications and is highly correlated with the state of manufacturing industry activity and the manufacturing transformation and upgrading. Manufacturing growth has a positive driving effect on domestic demand for machine tools. Domestic machine tool leaders are actively positioning themselves in the high-end CNC systems and intelligent manufacturing sectors, which will reshape the competitive landscape in the machine tool industry. It is recommended to focus on: domestic machine tool leaders with strong R&D capabilities, proprietary core technology barriers, independently controllable key core components, and deep ties with downstream large customers.

The main views of Donghai Securities are as follows:

Event

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in January-February 2026, China’s production of metal-cutting machine tools totaled 125,000 units cumulatively, up 4.20% year over year. According to statistics from the General Administration of Customs, China’s machine tool export value in January-February 2026 was USD 2.204 billion, up 15.70% year over year, while the export quantity was 1.78 million units, down 22.10% year over year; China’s machine tool import value was USD 845 million, down 3.90% year over year, and the import quantity was 8,687 units, down 28.60% year over year.

Machine tool market maintains growth at the beginning of the year

In January-February 2026, the output of metal-cutting machine tools grew 4.2% year over year. The growth trend at the beginning of the year remained stable and was affected only limitedly by the Spring Festival holiday. Among them, in the Beijing area, the output of CNC metal-cutting machine tools was 822 units, up 20.9% year over year. Combined with the import situation of machine tools in January-February 2026, the import quantity and import value were -28.60% and -3.90% year over year, respectively. The decline in imports indicates that domestic high-end machine tools are gradually meeting high-end demand and that the domestic substitution process is accelerating. From domestic macro data, machine tool demand is highly correlated with manufacturing upgrades, investment in high-end equipment, and the progress of equipment replacement. From macro activity data, in February 2026, the PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.50%, up 0.6 pct year over year, and it continued to stay in an expansion zone. Downstream high-end manufacturing remains in good shape. Stable growth in demand in high-end areas such as new energy vehicles, robots, and aerospace is driving growth in domestic sales of high-end CNC machine tools.

In addition, domestic policy efforts are strengthening support for the high-end machine tool industry. The “Machinery Industry Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth (2025-2026),” jointly issued by six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, continues to be implemented. It encourages enterprises to increase investment in technological innovation, accelerate equipment replacement and upgrading, promote the transformation of machine tools toward high-end and intelligent manufacturing, and align with domestic demand in the high-end manufacturing sector. In parallel, the “Plan for Building a High-Quality Standards System for Industrial Mother Machines,” jointly issued by the National Standardization Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, is also being advanced. In 2026, the full-year equipment replacement loan interest subsidy will provide funding support. The steady growth pace of the machine tool industry may continue through all of 2026.

Machine tool export average unit price rises sharply

Based on core export data, in January-February 2026, machine tool export value increased 15.70% year over year, but export quantity decreased 22.10% year over year. The export average unit price of machine tools reached USD 0.124 per unit, up 71.04% year over year. The export mix shows a clear pattern of improving quality and increasing efficiency. The effectiveness of China’s machine tool high-end transformation is evident: the export share of high value-added CNC machine tools has increased. Judging by overseas order situations, in January 2026, Japan’s full-year metal-cutting machine tool order value was 107.867 billion Japanese yen, up 20.20% year over year. In February 2026, the U.S. and Europe manufacturing PMIs were 52.4% and 50.6%, up 2.1 pct and 2.7 pct year over year, respectively. This suggests that manufacturing recovery in developed countries overseas is on track and that demand for equipment continues to be released. In 2026, with domestic machine tool technology iterating and upgrading, exports of domestic machine tool equipment with higher cost performance may continue to grow.

Shenyang Machine Tool

Released iterative products—domestic industrial mother machines break through again. On March 20, the Shenyang Machine Tool product launch event released 4 categories and 9 technology-iteration products, covering vertical machining centers, horizontal CNC lathes, gantry machining centers, vertical five-axis linkage machining centers, and more. In 2025, the company invested RMB 215 million in R&D funds and raised RMB 1.7 billion from the capital markets, strengthening high-end manufacturing capabilities. It also formed innovation alliances with upstream and downstream enterprises, conducting coordinated breakthroughs around key links, while core technologies continued to make progress.

Jichuang Century (Genesis)

Launched the fifth-generation T-V856S vertical machining center. The TA I Chyun Precision Machinery its 856 series vertical lathes cumulative sales have already exceeded 40,000 units. The new product’s tool-changing efficiency improved by 30%. It also effectively lowered equipment operation and maintenance costs through a fat lubrication design. The product focuses on emerging precision machining fields such as new energy vehicles, AI servers, and humanoid robots, further consolidating the company’s leading advantage in the domestic vertical machining center segment and continuously promoting the process of domestic substitution for general machine tools.

Risk warning: Risk that the pace of technological iteration is less than expected; risk that capacity release is less than expected; risk of intensifying industry competition.