HTX DeepThink: The rate cut expectations have failed, and the crypto market has entered a re-pricing phase under triple macro pressures.

Deep Tide TechFlow message, March 27, HTX DeepThink column author and HTX Research researcher Chloe (@ChloeTalk1) analysis points out that the impact of this round of macro variables on the crypto market has further evolved from “risk appetite driven by easing expectations” into a threefold suppression framework of “higher interest rates for longer + energy shocks + liquidity contraction.” In her latest remarks, Jerome Powell formally retains the median forecast for one rate cut within the year, but the core signal is clearer: until inflation shows sustained, credible declines, policy will not turn toward easing. The market has completed the first round of rapid repricing; short-term interest rates remain high and even have some upward stickiness, meaning the prior trading logic based on “cutting rates in advance” has basically failed. For the crypto market, this directly weakens the valuation anchor, subjecting high-beta assets, AI narrative coins, and assets without cash-flow support to more pronounced valuation compression pressure.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues to disrupt the energy market, and rising oil prices are reigniting the risk of “second-round inflation.” The key change is not inflation itself, but how it constrains global liquidity: higher energy prices squeeze the risk budgets of households and institutions, and extend the global high-interest-rate cycle, thereby imposing systematic suppression on all risk assets. Under this framework, the core of the crypto market is no longer the simple classification of “risk assets vs. safe-haven assets,” but the re-ranking of “liquidity priority.” In extreme cases, BTC may still benefit from fiat currency credit and sovereign risk narratives, but in normal conditions its price remains highly dependent on U.S. dollar liquidity. Therefore, in the short term, it is more likely to show a “hold up better rather than rally” structure.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan remains on hold, but the policy path still points toward exiting ultra-easy policy. If the yen continues to weaken and the central bank cannot provide clearer tightening signals, global carry trade volatility may be amplified again. Once the yen funding chain tightens, historical experience suggests that high-volatility assets will face pressure first, and the crypto market will be unable to insulate itself from that shock. What needs to be重点关注: first, whether U.S. inflation and employment data continue to reinforce “higher for longer”; second, whether the Bank of Japan releases a clearer rate-hike path in April. If both resonate, the market will enter a phase of “liquidity contraction + amplified volatility.”

From a trading-structure perspective, the market has entered a “light beta,重 structure” phase. BTC still has a relative advantage because it combines liquidity with macro narratives; ETH depends on on-chain activity and the recovery of capital flows; and most altcoins remain in a valuation repricing cycle. Overall, the market has shifted from “liquidity-driven upside” to “seeking relative returns in a constrained environment.” In the short term, the mainline is not a broad-based long position, but waiting for the repricing window after the macro path becomes clear.

Note: This article is not investment advice and does not constitute any offer, solicitation of an offer, or recommendation for any investment product.