What kind of people can survive the bull and bear markets?

What kind of person can survive the bull and bear markets?

In your experiences of navigating through bull and bear markets, what is the core trait of those who ultimately “survive” — those true survivors?

After reading picklecat’s article, the question that has long lingered in my heart finally has a clear answer.

1. The eternal illusion, named “This time is different”
   “This time is different!” — Survivors from 2013 heard this phrase when they bought their first Bitcoin; by the peak of the bull market in 2021, it echoed in their ears once more; even now, this phrase still whispers like a ghost, as if an old friend has returned. The difference is that the speakers have changed from generation to generation.

Looking back to when I first traded memes, this thought was also spinning in my mind — “This time is different!”

At that time, I had just transitioned from the 大A to Crypto, carrying the belief from 大A that “spot trading is not afraid of being stuck, buy more as it falls,” and exchanged a lot of money for SOL, then scattered a few, dozens of SOL into various pools with strange names like throwing sesame seeds.

At that moment, I only thought, “This coin is only $0.00001, if it rises to $0.0001, that’s ten times,” simple arithmetic replaced complex thinking.

To this day, my wallet still holds those bizarre names, and their existence now feels absurd. Their lifecycle is not measured in days or months, but in minutes or hours.

At a certain point in time, these project teams stopped updating, and the “shared dream” and “let’s build together” in the group quickly turned into accusations and wails of “when will the pump happen.”

That was the first time I truly felt that, in cypto, “going to zero” is not an exaggerated rhetoric, but a physical reality occurring in countless wallets every day.

2. The most expensive tuition: The illusion of “inside information”
   An even more ironic lesson came from my most trusted circle. When I started doubting life after losing money trading meme coins, a friend reached out to me, saying, “This time is really different,” he said mysteriously, “I know someone from the project team, it’s going to hit the big exchanges next month, internal price, guaranteed profit.”

You can guess the outcome; I invested my money, but that project never launched, and my “friend” later told me he was also scammed. That money became the most expensive lesson of my crypto career (so far) — it completely shattered my last shred of illusion about “inside information.”

3. The “temperament” of survivors: Clarity after pain
   Over the years, I have excavated the mistakes I made and those of my vanished friends like an archaeologist, and I have gradually seen clearly those who can survive one cypto bull and bear cycle after another, they exude a similar “temperament.”

It is not a fortunate temperament, but a complex nature mixed with pain and clarity.

Firstly, they have an instinctive respect for numbers and a clear perception of scale.

While I was randomly throwing SOL, survivors were calculating fully diluted valuations, checking on-chain holding distributions, and asking “if everyone sells, how much capital is needed to catch the fall?”

They do not just look at prices; they look at market capitalization; they do not just look at percentage increases; they look at liquidity depth. They know that a coin with a market cap of $100 million rising tenfold is much harder than a coin with a market cap of $10 million rising tenfold.

Secondly, they have a surgical ability to distinguish between “consensus” and “narratives.”

While I was moved to excitement by narratives like “moon” and “starry seas,” they were observing: are people really using this protocol, or is it just hype? When incentives stop, how many will remain?

They use @0xPickleCati’s “Five Questions for Retail Investors” to scrutinize every popular project: Are there outsiders? Can it pass the incentive decay test? Has it formed a daily habit? Are users willing to tolerate temporary shortcomings for the benefits? Is anyone willing to generate value out of love?

Thirdly, their understanding of “trust” is as cold as ice.

After my “friend’s” scam, I realized that in cypto, trust must be placed on verifiable on-chain behavior and long-term consistent reputation, rather than the private “I’ll only tell you.”

Fourthly, they have a set of “self-countering” behavior systems.

This is the most crucial point. They deeply understand their emotional weaknesses — fear, greed, FOMO, revenge trading — and during calm market conditions, they preset action roadmaps for moments of emotional loss of control.

“If it drops by 30%, I will reduce my position by 25%, instead of averaging down.”
“Any buying decision must be executed after a 24-hour cooling-off period.”
“If a single loss exceeds 2% of total capital, stop all trading for the day.”

These rules are not written dogmas but are ingrained in their trading instinct’s muscle memory.

Their faith is built on quicksand but as solid as a rock.

This sounds contradictory, but it is key. Their “faith” in a particular token or protocol is founded on a clear recognition of its potential failures. They embrace uncertainty; therefore, their persistence is not blind loyalty but rather a mature mindset of “I am willing to bet on this possibility and bear all consequences.”

Their faith can calmly articulate opposing views rather than zealously eliminate dissent.

The cypto market is the most effective “humanity filter” on this planet. It does not filter for the smartest but for the most resilient; it does not filter for the best at making money, but for those who understand how not to lose money.

I would also like to ask everyone, in your experiences of navigating through bull and bear markets, what do you observe as the most core trait of those who “survive”?

Is it extreme calmness? Is it risk aversion? Is it a learning machine? Is it solitary endurance? Or is it decisiveness?

At the same time, if you’ve read this far and a face comes to mind that matches these traits, please forward this article to them with a note: “I think you are that kind of person.”

Because in a field where most people are destined to become fuel, recognizing and getting close to those who can survive long-term is itself one of the most important survival wisdoms.