Unprecedented! USD Redesign: Trump’s signature will be printed on the banknotes. U.S. Treasury Secretary: It reflects the President’s "historic achievements" and is very appropriate! Multiple institutions raise the probability of a U.S. recession.

On March 26 local time, the U.S. Treasury Department announced that starting this summer, U.S. paper currency will feature President Trump’s signature. This will mark the first time a sitting U.S. president has signed U.S. banknotes. The Treasury’s statement noted that this redesigned currency “aims to commemorate the 250th anniversary of American independence,” while breaking a 165-year tradition by no longer featuring the signature of the Treasury Secretary; however, the overall design of the banknotes is said to remain unchanged.

Image source: Visual China (file photo)

U.S. Secretary of the Treasury: Trump’s Second Term

“U.S. economic growth is strong and the financial system is stable”

According to reports, the first batch of $100 banknotes signed by Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will be printed in June, followed by other denominations over the next few months. The new banknotes may take several weeks to circulate through the banking system.

Mnuchin stated in a press release that given the “strong economic growth and stable financial system” during Trump’s second term, this move is “very appropriate” as a commemoration of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States.

“There is no better way to highlight the historic achievements of our great country and President Trump than by issuing dollar bills bearing his name,” Mnuchin said in the statement.

Treasury Director Brandon Beach remarked, “As the architect of America’s economic renaissance, the president’s place in history is undeniable. Having his signature printed on U.S. currency is not only fitting but well-deserved.”

Reports indicate that this signature change is the latest initiative by the Trump administration and its allies to attach the president’s name to buildings, institutions, government projects, warships, and coins. A federal arts commission appointed by Trump approved a design for a commemorative gold coin featuring Trump’s likeness last week.

After the U.S. Mint submitted the proposal, the U.S. Fine Arts Commission unanimously approved the design.

Image source: Visual China

Previously, plans to introduce a circulating version of the “1 dollar Trump coin” were stalled due to legal prohibitions against printing the likeness of living persons on U.S. coins.

Treasury officials also stated that besides Trump’s signature replacing the Treasury Secretary’s, the overall design of the banknotes will not change. There is currently no immediate view of a sample of the $100 banknote featuring Trump’s signature.

Multiple agencies raise the probability of U.S. economic recession

However, due to the prolonged conflict in the U.S.-Israel war bringing additional downside risks to the U.S. economy, several agencies recently raised the probability of the U.S. entering a recession.

According to news from the U.S. on the 25th, Moody’s Analytics model shows that the probability of the U.S. economy entering a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 48.6%; Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast of this probability to 30%; Wilmington Trust Company and EY-Parthenon have estimated the probability of a U.S. recession at 45% and 40%, respectively. Normally, this probability should be around 20%.

Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi expressed concern that the recession risk is “high enough to be uncomfortable and continues to rise,” stating that an economic recession is a real threat. If current high oil prices persist until late May or the end of the second quarter, “the U.S. economy will enter a recession.”

Wilmington Trust Company chief economist Luke Tilly warned that U.S. consumer spending largely depends on rising asset prices. Over the past two years, 20% to 25% of consumer spending growth has come from the wealth effect of the stock market; without this boost, economic growth will significantly slow.