After the decline of the takeout battle, the freshly brewed tea industry is entering a "watershed" moment: Mixue steps back, Gu Ming moves forward.

This week, the two major giants in the ready-to-drink tea industry, Mixue Group and Guming, provided their outlook for 2026 during earnings calls. The market clearly sees two completely different paths: on one hand, Mixue Group has suddenly hit the brakes in 2026, shifting from aggressive expansion to “internal nurturing”; on the other hand, Guming appears remarkably calm in the expectation of a downturn in the takeout war, not only expecting to continue rapid store openings this year but also conveying that the “fusion of tea and coffee” strategy will drive continued growth in same-store GMV.

Why are the strategies of these two giants for 2026 so divergent in the same macro environment and under the same backdrop of decline in takeout? We believe that Mixue is paying the price for its past “pure low-price” strategy, while Guming is harvesting a new round of structural dividends through “supply chain” and “category fusion”.

1. Why does Mixue take a step back to move forward?

1. Victim of the takeout war:

In the takeout war that began to heat up in May 2025, the ready-to-drink beverage industry seemed to become one of the biggest winners, especially mid-to-high-end ready-to-drink brands that used massive platform subsidies to bring the single-cup price of high-quality ready-to-drink beverages below 10 yuan during peak subsidy periods. This subsidization fundamentally restructured consumers’ mental accounts.

For Mixue Group, this is a “dimensional attack.” Mixue’s core competitiveness lies in “extreme cost-performance ratio,” with the main products of the Mixue Ice City brand concentrated in the 4-8 yuan range. However, when consumers discover they can spend about the same amount of money to buy “premium goods” made with fresh milk and fresh fruit on takeout platforms, Mixue’s offline high-traffic advantages are instantly undermined.

Mixue relies on high foot traffic scenarios such as shopping malls and pedestrian streets. The takeout war has taught consumers to “drink milk tea at home.” Faced with fierce market competition and money-splashing subsidies, Mixue’s franchisees can hardly remain unaffected. However, Mixue’s low-price characteristic makes it inherently unsuitable for the takeout channel—low average order values lead to a high proportion of delivery fees, and once the platform reduces delivery subsidies, the rapid decline in net revenue will result in store income increasing without profit, even “losing money to gain popularity.”

According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the single-store operational data of Mixue began to deteriorate rapidly starting in 4Q25. Meanwhile, JPMorgan predicts that Mixue’s same-store sales will face negative growth pressure in 2026, with single-store cup volume expected to decline by about 8%.

2. A forced “amputation for survival”:

The takeout war not only weakened Mixue Group’s proud nationwide store network but also exposed Mixue’s weaknesses—product power. Mid-to-high-end brands of ready-to-drink beverages have completed “consumer education” through the takeout war and achieved a conversion of some “snow king die-hard fans.” After all, ready-to-drink beverages are an important brand of emotional consumption, making it worth “spending a few more bucks for a good mood.”

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