Epic bloodbath! AI giant's $60 billion IPO countdown, is the liquidity powder keg for $BTC and $ETH about to explode?

Capital markets are holding their breath for a moment that could rewrite history. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic, a leading company in the artificial intelligence space, has begun discussions at the management level about launching an initial public offering as early as the fourth quarter of this year. Investment banks competing for underwriting positions have offered a stunning projection: the IPO could raise more than $60 billion.

If this figure ultimately materializes, it would rank only behind SpaceX, becoming the second-largest IPO in history by deal size. Market analysis notes that Anthropic has taken tangible steps toward this, such as hiring a dedicated legal services firm. Just last month, the company secured a valuation of about $350 billion in a round of private financing.

This capital extravaganza is not a solo act. Its main rival, OpenAI, is also preparing to go public at a fast pace. Reports say that OpenAI CEO Sam Altman privately expressed a desire to get the listing done first. This race between the two top AI labs to hit the market first—and the outcome—will depend largely on the overall macroeconomic environment.

For investors in the public markets, this door to directly participate in core AI assets is slowly beginning to open. Investment banks project that companies typically sell 10% to 25% of their shares in an IPO, based on company valuations and market demand. However, people familiar with the matter also emphasized that all these plans could change, and macroeconomic events or adjustments to the company’s own strategy could affect the final decision.

On the attractiveness of the business model, some bankers and lawyers tend to believe that Anthropic may win over public-market favor sooner. Its focus on serving developer communities and enterprise customers is seen as offering a relatively clearer and more direct path to profitability. By contrast, while OpenAI’s valuation is higher, its massive cash burn and longer profitability timeline may bring more uncertainty.

Financial data reveals the intensity of the competition. Driven by strong demand for automated programming tools, Anthropic’s annualized revenue figure for the first two months of this year has more than doubled to $19 billion, rapidly narrowing the gap with OpenAI. The latter, backed by ChatGPT subscription revenue, said its annualized revenue figure last month had already surpassed $25 billion.

On profit expectations, Anthropic had previously expected to achieve positive cash flow as early as 2028, with cumulative cash burn of about $22 billion. OpenAI expects to reach positive free cash flow in 2030, but the scale of cumulative losses from prior internal forecasts could exceed $200 billion. Advisors noted that how the two companies will confirm revenue from cloud service providers, and how they will explain their unprecedented revenue growth pace and server costs, will be key focal points for regulatory scrutiny.

In addition to going public, both companies are also expanding their cooperation with private capital in parallel. It is reported that Anthropic is in discussions with several major private equity firms, including Blackstone, about forming a joint venture. OpenAI has also held similar talks with multiple well-known private firms. They view the network of enterprise clients behind private equity as a key engine for growth.

However, the path to the public market is full of external risks. Geopolitical tensions—such as conflicts in the Middle East—could push up oil prices and raise inflation concerns, thereby suppressing consumer spending. This kind of macro uncertainty would directly dampen overall IPO market activity, ultimately affecting the listing timelines of these two AI labs.

This impending capital shake-up will undoubtedly become a defining milestone for this round of AI momentum. It is not only about the fate of the two companies, but will also send deep ripples across related industry segments such as cloud computing and semiconductors. For broader risk-asset markets—especially assets like $BTC and $ETH that are highly sensitive to global liquidity—the massive capital siphon effect at such a scale is a macro variable that cannot be ignored.

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