MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin asset portfolio (MicroStrategy/Strategy) is relatively safe at the current price of $73,000, with no short-term liquidation risk. But this is a set of “high leverage, high cost” long-term betting tools, and its margin of safety relies entirely on BTC’s long-term appreciation expectations.

Why do people say it is “safe”? (No liquidation line)

Many people mistakenly believe that MSTR operates under a collateralized borrowing model; in reality, its structure is more complex, and there is no traditional “liquidation price.”

Financing structure holds up against downturns: The core financing instrument is STRC perpetual preferred stock. This is not a mortgage loan; it is equity financing. STRC has no maturity date; the company does not need to repay principal— it only pays dividends (about 11.5%). This means that a decline in the coin price will not trigger “margin calls” or “forced liquidation”; there is only cash flow pressure, with no liquidation line.

Official confidence: Saylor has publicly stated that even if BTC drops to $8,000, the company will not be forced to sell coins. This is not bluster; it is based on objective facts about its financing structure.

The real risks: cash flow and the market’s ability to absorb

Safety does not mean “risk-free”; its hidden dangers are long-term erosion and liquidity black holes.

Interest payment pressure (bleeding risk)

Cost: STRC’s annual dividend is about 11.5%, and it fluctuates with interest rates. MSTR must ensure that BTC’s long-term price gains outperform this cost of capital.

Current situation: The current BTC price (~$73k) is below its average cost (~$75.7k), and the company is in an unrealized loss position. If the market stays range-bound for the long term or drifts downward, the high dividend payments will continue to drain the company’s cash flow.

“The whale exits” problem (black swan)

MSTR holds about 766,000 BTC (about 3.6% of circulating supply), and it is already one of the largest single entities in the world.

Risk point: Once the market panics or the company is forced to reduce holdings, such a huge pile of chips will be extremely difficult to sell smoothly in the secondary market, making it all too easy to trigger a “sell coins → coin price drops → stock price drops” death spiral.

Trading impact

Combined with a “forced selling prevention” strategy, MSTR’s asset portfolio itself will not trigger systemic risk over the weekend (because there is no liquidation mechanism). What you need to watch out for is:

Sentiment indicators: If BTC breaks below $70,000, MSTR’s massive unrealized losses will become an amplifier of market panic, intensifying sell pressure.

Watch point: Monitor the dividend payment situation of STRC. If rumors of “dividend arrears” appear in the future, that is the signal that the funding chain is under strain—at that time, you should immediately take risk-avoidance measures.

One-sentence summary: MSTR’s Bitcoin will not be forcibly liquidated by exchanges, but it is a “high-debt super-giant” that depends on BTC’s long-term bull market to survive. Safe in the short term; unclear in the long run. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战