Shouchuang Futures: Cost increases, policy expectations rise again, and soda ash futures are supported

On the supply side, the soda ash plant maintenance has been restored and production has increased, leading to an overall increase in supply. The comprehensive utilization rate of soda ash capacity is 86.77%, up 1.73% month-on-month. Soda ash production is 807k tons, an increase of 16k tons from the previous month, a growth of 2.03%. The total domestic soda ash inventory is 1.9472 million tons, an increase of 52.8k tons from the previous month, a rise of 2.79%. Next week, Jiangsu Debang plans to increase output, and it is expected that soda ash supply will remain at a relatively high level.

On the demand side, downstream operations have rebounded this week, with factories replenishing inventory at low prices. The daily float glass melting volume is 148.5k tons, stable month-on-month; the daily photovoltaic melting volume is 87.8k tons, down 800 tons. Next week, it is expected that one float line of 600 tons will be shut down, and one 1050-ton line will be ignited. For photovoltaics, one 1600-ton line is expected to be ignited. The estimated weekly production of float glass is 1.0341 million tons, and the in-production capacity of photovoltaic glass is 622.4k tons.

In summary, energy supply risks are spilling over, coal prices are performing strongly, and cost support is robust. Additionally, important meetings have reiterated anti-involution and ecological environmental protection, which may cause disturbances on the supply side. It is expected that in the short term, soda ash valuation will continue to recover, with attention to cost changes, plant maintenance status, and downstream inventory replenishment pace. (First Capital Futures)