An interesting perspective from macro strategist Mark Connors: A prolonged conflict between the USA and Iran could actually benefit Bitcoin. The logic behind this is actually quite easy to understand when you look at the USA’s public debt.

Connors argues that wars are expensive and governments typically have to take on more debt to finance them. This massively increases liquidity in the financial system—and that is precisely what Bitcoin has historically been driven by. He notes that since mid-2025, USA public debt has been growing at about 14% annually. If this trend continues, indebtedness could rise by roughly 15% year over year. This is essentially a slow devaluation of the Dollars.

What interests me most: Connors sees a structural problem here. The Federal Reserve is under additional pressure—not only to ensure price stability, but also to guarantee the functioning of financial markets—especially the Treasury market. That likely means lower interest rates to keep rising USA public debt manageable. And it’s exactly this combination—falling rates amid growing deficits—that has historically been the ideal environment for Bitcoin.

Bitcoin apparently has already felt it. After the first USA strike against Iran, the cryptocurrency gained 3.6%. The current price is around 72,660 Dollars, and movements over the weekend suggest that investors are indeed rebalancing their portfolios and shifting from traditional stocks to alternative assets.

Connors also points to an interesting scenario: even if oil prices rise due to the war and inflation increases, a stagflationary environment could still support Bitcoin. In such a situation, policymakers would likely prioritize financial stability over fighting inflation—which in turn leads to looser liquidity.

The central thesis is simple: if deficit spending increases, USA public debt continues to explode, and interest rates fall, then we have exactly the conditions under which Bitcoin tends to shine. Whether this conflict actually drags on for months remains to be seen—but from this macroeconomic perspective, the overall framework looks quite interesting.