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Just noticed something interesting on the charts - the Hash Ribbon is flashing signs that this brutal miner capitulation might finally be wrapping up. We're talking about one of the longest stretches of mining stress in years, according to the data. Three months of miners getting squeezed, and the pattern historically shows this is when we often see local or major bottoms forming.
What caught my eye is that BTC is now trading below the estimated production cost for miners - sitting around $66k territory. Last time this happened was back in November 2022, right before the actual bottom. The theory is solid: when miners are bleeding money, they shut down operations and sell their reserves, adding massive sell pressure. Eventually though, they come back online when conditions improve, and that's the signal we're watching for.
Since late November, we've seen the full drawdown play out - dropped from around $90k down to $60k, pretty brutal. But here's the thing: historically, about 20 major mining capitulations since 2011 have marked significant turning points. January 2015, December 2018, December 2022 - all capitulation events that preceded recoveries. Currently BTC is sitting around $72.7k, and hash rate is already starting to rebound. The capitulation cycle looks like it might be completing, which typically aligns with renewed accumulation interest.