Pig prices continue to hit new lows; do not blindly expand production and gamble on the market.

This article is reprinted from: Farmers Daily

Farmers Daily All Media Reporter Liu Yiming

Affected by the inertia of pig production growth and the entry into the traditional off-season for pork consumption, the pig market prices have rapidly fallen after this year’s Spring Festival, and pig farming is operating at a loss. According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in February, the loss rate in pig farming was 57.6%, an increase of 3.8% compared to the previous month.

Data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs’ monitoring of 500 county-level wholesale markets and collection points nationwide show that in the fourth week of March, the average price of live pigs nationwide was 10.68 yuan/kg, down 3.3% from the previous week, and down 29.8% year-on-year.

Currently, pork supply is sufficient, but prices continue to hit bottom. While consumers enjoy “pork freedom,” they have not yet achieved a win-win situation where “people can afford to eat pork and farmers can make a profit.” Why are pig prices continuing to decline? What new changes are there in the pig breeding industry? What should be done in the future? Please see the frontline reporter’s coverage.

What factors are influencing the continued decline in pig prices?

On March 25, Hu Guoliang, a farmer in Linyi City, Shandong Province, told reporters that the local pig purchase price was 10.2 yuan/kg, and feed prices are gradually rising. Now, selling one pig results in a loss of 400 yuan.

“On March 30, the wholesale price of white-label pigs at the Xinfadi Market was 12.1 yuan/kg. Currently, pork supply is ample, and meat prices may remain low in the short term,” said Tong Wei, head of the publicity department at Beijing Xinfadi Market.

So, why are pig prices continuing to hit bottom?

“Over-supply and weak demand remain the main reasons for the decline in pig prices,” said Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences.

From the supply side, according to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from January to February 2026, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughter enterprises nationwide was 75.81 million pigs, an increase of 21.9% year-on-year, with 31.77 million pigs in February alone, up 40.7% year-on-year. This is mainly because, in the first half of 2025, the national breeding sow inventory remained relatively high, coupled with a steady increase in the number of piglets provided per breeding sow, leading to ample pig supply in the first quarter of 2026.

From the demand side, after the New Year, pork consumption quickly enters the year’s lowest season. With the Spring Festival just over, many households still have stock in their refrigerators, and leftover cured meats and sausages are not finished, so fresh pork purchases are low. Generally, pork consumption drops by about 20% after the festival, showing a clear seasonal weak demand pattern.

Compared to the previous pig price trough, what is different now?

The last cycle of pig price lows occurred in March 2022, with the lowest pig price at 12.52 yuan/kg at the end of March.

Compared to the last trough, there are significant differences in the current cycle.

From the consumption perspective, the proportion of pork in meat consumption has gradually decreased, from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025, as demand for animal protein diversifies and other meats increasingly substitute pork, weakening the support for pig prices.

From the production side, the current cycle has seen improvements in various supply-side indicators such as PSY (the number of piglets weaned per sow) and the scale of operations, which have effectively increased industry efficiency. Estimates show that overall production costs have stabilized or decreased; during the last low cycle, industry average costs were 15–16 yuan/kg, while now costs are around 13–14 yuan/kg, with better levels controlled at 11–12 yuan/kg.

An industry insider told reporters that before the last price trough, the industry was in a period of expansion, with many companies investing profits into equipment or new plants. After prices hit bottom, some faced cash flow issues. Currently, before the price decline, the pig industry had been profitable for 17 consecutive months from May 2024 to September 2025, accumulating some funds.

The improvements in industry efficiency, reduced costs, and prior capital accumulation have created two main features of the current price trough:

In terms of capacity adjustment, these changes have also weakened the willingness of farms (households) to reduce capacity. Coupled with some farms engaging in speculative production and market gambling, the pace of capacity reduction has been affected.

In terms of supply stability, farmers’ risk resistance has increased, and there has been no large-scale abandonment of pigs during this low period, which is conducive to stable pig production and ensuring pork supply.

What future changes should the industry pay attention to?

There is a consensus in the industry that, in the long term, pig market supply depends on sow numbers, in the medium term on piglets, and in the short term on medium and large pigs. Changes in piglet prices can reflect industry outlook to some extent.

According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, piglet prices have risen then fallen since 2026. Prices rose from 23.45 yuan/kg in the first week of January to 27.67 yuan/kg in the last week of February, reflecting a generally optimistic outlook among breeders for the second half of the year and increased breeding efforts.

“Currently, pig production capacity is still relatively high. Only when capacity is properly reduced can the market improve. Continuing to increase breeding would hinder reversing the downturn,” Zhu Zengyong said.

However, as pig prices continue to decline, farmers’ enthusiasm for breeding piglets is gradually waning, and piglet prices have started to fall. Latest data shows that in the fourth week of March, piglet prices dropped to 25.42 yuan/kg, down 3% from the previous week and 33.3% year-on-year.

Additionally, pork consumption is also showing new changes. Although household consumption remains in the seasonal low after the festival, group consumption driven by low prices is showing structural growth.

“Currently, the daily average of white-label pigs listed at Xinfadi Market is about 1,900, an 8% increase from the same period last year. The main reason for this increase is the sharp decline in meat prices, which, under unchanged procurement standards, has significantly increased the amount of meat used in institutional canteens,” Tong Wei explained.

Zhu Zengyong believes that although the overall supply of pigs throughout the year is unlikely to change drastically, considering farmers’ declining enthusiasm for breeding, along with moderate demand from holiday stocking in the second half of the year for catering and household consumption, pig prices are likely to stabilize with a gentle rebound.

Since last year, in response to the phased oversupply of pig capacity, the government has implemented comprehensive measures such as capacity monitoring and early warning, task decomposition and implementation, notices to key provinces, and interviews with leading enterprises to regulate pig capacity. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 2025, the national breeding sow inventory was reduced to 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million from the previous year. As the industry enters a loss period, under policy guidance and market regulation, the effects of earlier capacity reduction are gradually becoming evident. As pork consumption gradually exits the off-season, the supply and demand relationship in the pig market is expected to improve.

It is understood that the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs is studying revisions to the comprehensive pig capacity regulation plan to strongly guide capacity back to normal levels. Meanwhile, the state has begun stockpiling frozen pork and guiding local efforts to increase reserves, forming a regulatory synergy. The General Administration of Financial Supervision, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs recently issued a notice on strengthening cooperation to promote high-quality development of pig insurance, further stabilizing pig production and supply, protecting farmers’ legal interests, and supporting high-quality development of pig insurance.

Zhu Zengyong recommends that farms (households) focus on disease prevention and cost management, while simultaneously timely culling low-yield sows, optimizing breeding efficiency, avoiding blind expansion and speculative market behavior, and preparing for potential market risks in the second half of the year. Large-scale breeding enterprises should leverage technology and management advantages, strengthen cash flow, and take the lead in responding to national capacity regulation requirements. Small and medium-sized farms, family farms, and individual households should focus on reducing costs and increasing efficiency, avoid unnecessary losses, and refrain from overstocking or gambling on market trends.