I looked at the market data on Monday and it was clearly a complete roller coaster. Bitcoin surged nearly $3,700 in one hour after a Trump tweet about tensions with Iran, then collapsed right afterward when Iran denied everything. Classic.



What struck me was the extent of the damage to leveraged positions. Over $415 million in liquidations in just 4 hours. Bitcoin alone lost $140 million, Ether $120 million. But the worst was really on tokenized oil contracts where traders betting on escalation got hit for $64 million. They were right about the direction of the war but completely wrong about Trump's next post.

The 2-to-1 ratio between short and long liquidations shows that the entire market was positioned for an upward roller coaster. When Trump announced his 5-day pause, everyone believed de-escalation. Then Iran said no, and boom, a roller coaster in the opposite direction.

What worries me is that the data shows derivatives now completely dominate the market, up to 5 times the spot volume. That means every new move becomes an amplified roller coaster. Short positions get crushed during the rebound, then longs get trapped on the downside. The net price movement remains modest, but leverage traders' losses explode.

Bitcoin ended the day at $70,000, up only 2.3%, despite all this volatility. It clearly shows how a crazy roller coaster can leave the price almost unchanged but destroy hundreds of millions in positions.
BTC0.48%
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