I just realized there’s something somewhat suspicious about Bitcoin’s recent movements. The pattern forming since early February looks very similar to what we saw between November and January last year. And honestly, that’s not a good sign.

So here’s the story: back then, Bitcoin moved within a fairly narrow range with a slight upward slope after dropping from 100K. It looks like recovery, but in reality, it was just a small pause in a larger downtrend. The result? The support that traders had been holding for so long finally broke, and BTC fell drastically from 90K to almost 60K.

Now? Bitcoin is forming a similar pattern. Since hitting the low in early February, the price has been moving within a narrow range again with an upward tendency. Looking at the zigzag lines connecting swing points, everything is neatly trapped between two trend lines. The similarity to the old pattern is too obvious to ignore.

What’s different is that the rally momentum right now is much weaker. Back then, there was explosive strength—now it’s slow and wavering. In technical analysis, this usually means bullish exhaustion— the market just needs a break before the bears take over again. Just look at the zigzag line on the daily chart—every upward swing is held perfectly in check, with no convincing breakout.

Realized losses have dropped to 400 million per day from a peak of 2 billion, meaning forced selling has decreased. The profit-to-loss ratio has risen to 1.4, showing that realized gains are now greater than losses. You could say this is slightly bullish, but the chart says otherwise.

The critical point: if Bitcoin breaks below 65.800 (lower line from the channel), it could mean bears are back in control. Conversely, if it breaks out to the upside, the downtrend could lose momentum and bulls could stage a serious comeback. Right now BTC is at 73.1K, so it’s still within the range. The big decision point is right ahead.