Over the past six months, I’ve observed something interesting: while Bitcoin has fallen by %25, the prices of premium watches like Rolex and Patek Philippe have risen in the opposite direction by %4. As the crypto market crashes by over 30%, luxury watches quietly continue along their own path. This isn’t actually a completely artificial contradictory move—something significant is happening in the market.

Looking at Morgan Stanley’s report, the situation becomes clearer. The second-hand watch market is recovering after two years of decline. Excess inventory is being cleared out, sellers have started to hold their prices more stubbornly, and manufacturers have increased their retail prices by %7 since the beginning of 2025. During the same period, Bitcoin was rising on expectations for a Bitcoin spot ETF, but as financial conditions tightened, watch prices continued to fall. Now, brands with real pricing power—like Rolex, Patek Philippe, and Audemars Piguet—are leading the recovery.

I’m seeing a shift in investor behavior. Instead of quick crypto bets, there’s an increasing move toward physical assets like Altın and Gümüş. Altın has risen by nearly %70 since the beginning of 2025, and Gümüş has come up to nearly %150. Watches have also become part of this preference for physical scarcity assets. As macro stress increases, people invest in slower, tangible things rather than fast-moving financial assets. Realized losses in Bitcoin are also decreasing—down from $2 billion to $400 million per day, indicating that forced selling is starting to stop. The profit-loss ratio has risen to 1.4, meaning realized gains are starting to leave losses behind. Market balance is changing.