Moutai raises prices against the trend! Chengdu distributors: offline terminal prices have already surpassed 1,750 yuan, and the industry is unlikely to trigger a wave of price hikes

Ask AI · Terminal price increase meets a cool response—how does Moutai maintain a balanced channel ecosystem?

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“Prices are up!” On the morning of April 1, right after the doors opened, Chengdu liquor distributor Mr. Yu couldn’t help exclaiming to a Financial Investment reporter: “The retail price of Feitian Moutai at the terminal has suddenly jumped to 1,750 yuan.”

Moutai’s terminal retail price increase stems from the company’s recent adjustment upward of product prices. For Guizhou Moutai, this move is expected to boost revenue and profits. But for the industry, the core issue for baijiu is still digesting inventory, maintaining channel ecology, and stabilizing the consumption “base,” rather than entering a new round of rising-price cycle.

A specialty store for Guizhou Moutai.

Moutai raises prices—consumers watch and wait

“Prices have gone up, but consumer drive hasn’t picked up.” Mr. Yu said, “In the morning, the number of customers in the store is less than half of what it usually is—most people are just observing.”

Reporters learned from multiple Chengdu distributors that, affected by the manufacturers’ price increases, the market retail prices of Feitian Moutai have generally risen, but deal performance is far from expectations.

Terminal prices are usually influenced by market demand, and this round of increase is mainly driven by manufacturers’ price hikes, combined with market sentiment reactions. On the evening of March 30, Guizhou Moutai Co., Ltd. released an announcement of a major event, stating that, starting from March 31, 2026, the sales contract price of Feitian 53%vol 500ml Guizhou Moutai (2026) will be adjusted from 1,169 yuan per bottle to 1,269 yuan per bottle, and the self-operated system retail price will be adjusted from 1,499 yuan per bottle to 1,539 yuan per bottle.

When interviewed by a Financial Investment reporter, baijiu industry analyst Cai Xuefei said: “In terms of underlying drivers, it’s precisely during the off-season after the Spring Festival; Guizhou Moutai can maintain channel and market confidence through a modest price increase. Second, a small price hike can work in tandem with the expansion of ‘iMoutai’ direct sales, reshaping the anchoring role of the ‘official guidance price.’ Finally, against the backdrop of generally declining prices for high-end baijiu, Moutai chooses to ‘raise openly while stabilizing quietly’—using a modest increase to offset market downside expectations, which helps maintain the brand’s own high-end value.”

It’s hard for the baijiu industry to spark a price-hike wave

After 8 years, Moutai’s “counter-cyclical” price increase—will it prompt peers to launch a new round of price hikes? Industry insiders believe the answer is no. Some analysis suggests that Moutai’s price increase this time is a special case. With the industry as a whole still burdened by high inventory and price inversion, most liquor companies either cannot or won’t be able to follow suit.

A display of some products by Guizhou Moutai. Photo: Li Li

Cai Xuefei said: “The vast majority of brands lack Moutai’s brand resilience and ability to control direct operations; blindly following price increases is no different from handing over market share.”

Moutai’s price increases have long served as an industry bellwether, but placed in today’s market environment, it’s difficult for this move to trigger widespread follow-on price hikes across the industry. The core reason is that the logic behind Moutai’s price increase is not replicable—it relies more on its enormous channel price gap and its unshakable brand position to recoup profits.

Baijiu industry observer Liu Bo, who was interviewed by a Financial Investment reporter, said: “At present, the overall baijiu industry is in a period of deep adjustment. The biggest problems faced by most liquor companies are high inventory and inverted bill-of-price levels. The top priorities are ‘stabilizing prices’ and ‘de-stocking,’ not rashly raising prices.”

“Moutai’s price increase is more like a ‘one-way move’ by a leading company at the bottom of the cycle,” Liu Bo added. “Only when macroeconomic conditions release clearer signals of a recovery, and consumer confidence undergoes a substantive repair, and when—after Moutai’s price increase—the terminal prices truly start to move steadily upward, can the industry be expected to enter a real, collective price-hike window.”

May increase Guizhou Moutai’s profit by 2%

For Guizhou Moutai, the price increase will directly thicken the company’s revenue and profits, making it one of the key variables for its 2026 performance growth.

Chinese food industry analyst Zhu Danpeng pointed out: “Moutai’s grasp of the timing for this price hike is very accurate. Raising the ex-factory price will bring positive stimulation to the company’s revenue, profit, and stock price—the three engines of growth.”

Ultimately reflected at the performance level, multiple institutions in the industry predict that this price increase will add about 2% to Guizhou Moutai’s revenue and profits. CICC (Industrial Securities) expects that this round of price increase by Guizhou Moutai will contribute nearly 3 billion yuan in additional revenue in 2026, accounting for 1.6%; and profit will be increased by about 1.8 billion yuan, accounting for 2%.

Guangfa Securities stated that it expects this round of price increases to thicken Guizhou Moutai’s 2026 top-line revenue and net profit attributable to parent by about 2%. Currently, the company’s valuation continues to diverge further from the overall level of A-shares, bond-type assets, and overseas core assets. Going forward, as the certainty of the business at the top line becomes stronger, the company may see opportunities for a valuation rebound.

| Financial Investment reporter Lin Ke · He Menglu |

Edited by | Yuan Gang

Responsible editor | He Menglu

Reviewed by | Wen Tingli · Three reviews by Zhang Jing