$XAU #加密市场回升 Spot gold just regained the $4,800 mark: short-term volatility does not change the long-term "hard currency" fundamentals!

Spot gold just strongly recovered the $4,800 per ounce level, with an intraday increase of over 1%. This rebound is mainly driven by the warming expectations of US-Iran negotiations—although uncertainties remain, market risk appetite has begun to recover, and signs of stabilization in precious metals are evident.

Short-term logic: "High volatility" under geopolitical game

- Negotiation window not closed: US and Iran may restart talks around Islamabad before April 16. As long as the conflict does not escalate, gold prices are unlikely to surge dramatically in the short term, mainly oscillating around the high of $4,800.
- Emotional fluctuations: Shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz and diplomatic news will frequently disturb the market, requiring close attention to news and caution against profit-taking.

Long-term trend: Three major pillars support "price upward movement"

Setting aside short-term noise, the underlying logic of gold remains solid, and a mid- to long-term increase in the price center is highly probable.

1. Geopolitical and order reconstruction: Middle East risks become normalized, coupled with the reshaping of global political and economic order, making the safe-haven attribute difficult to fade.
2. US dollar credit anxiety: Concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal deficits are intensifying, and the Trump administration's frequent pressure on the Federal Reserve has weakened central bank independence. The de-dollarization process is driving global central banks to continue "stockpiling gold."
3. Allocation demand: During periods of monetary system turbulence, gold as a non-sovereign credit asset remains a core tool for hedging tail risks in asset portfolios.

Operational perspective

- Short-term: The battle between bulls and bears around the $4,800 level is intense; watch the resistance at $4,850, and avoid chasing highs or selling lows.
- Long-term: Every correction caused by news can be seen as a retest of the long-term trend line; buying on dips remains the main approach.

Risk warning: If US-Iran negotiations achieve unexpected breakthroughs or the Federal Reserve shifts to a hawkish stance, it may trigger a rapid correction in gold prices. Position control is essential.

This article is based on publicly available market data and institutional opinions and does not constitute investment advice. Markets are risky; decision-making should be cautious.