#加密市场回升 In the past two days, the market really has turned retail investors’ mindsets inside out: the moment the news of the US-Iran blockade came out last week, BTC was directly hammered through 71,000; more than 140,000 traders got liquidated in 24 hours, and the whole market was in panic. In the past two days, expectations of a ceasefire have been heating up, and market confidence has been repaired quickly. In just 24 hours, the DeFi sector jumped by 5%, and the whole sector rallied broadly—this has been an emotional, rollercoaster-style market entirely driven by sentiment.

Let’s talk about my real views on three core questions; purely personal opinions, not investment advice 👇

1️⃣ Will Iran make concessions? A 20-year long pause = a pipe dream
Iran absolutely will not accept the demand for a 20-year nuclear pause. That is essentially giving up its core strategic bargaining chips directly. The Strait of Hormuz is Iran’s energy lifeline; making long-term concessions is like severing your own foundation. The only agreement the two sides can reach will be a short-term ceasefire compromise. In essence, it’s negotiating while dragging things out—easing the sanctions pressure at hand, and the geopolitical tug-of-war afterward will only keep pulling back and forth. Black swan events could come at any time, so you absolutely cannot be careless.

2️⃣ Where is the ceiling of this rebound? A sentiment-driven rally—take profit when it looks good
This rally is completely a sentiment repair brought by the easing of geopolitical risk premiums—there is no strong fundamental support, such as Federal Reserve interest rate cuts or a major influx of ETF capital. For BTC, I’m seeing the range of 77,000–78,000 USDT. For ETH, I’m watching 2,350–2,400 USDT. The sell pressure from trapped positions above is huge, so it’s difficult to break through the previous highs. It’s more suitable to take profits on swings—absolutely don’t chase the price up high. Ordinary retail investors, don’t let the voices of “the bull market is here” get you carried away. This is only a rebound, not a reversal.

3️⃣ How should asset allocation be adjusted? Balance between hedging and dynamic risk
With the current situation being so uncertain, you must absolutely not concentrate heavily in a single asset. My allocation plan is:

- 50% in crypto assets: mainly BTC and ETH leaders; use a small allocation to position the DeFi leaders for the rebound, and firmly avoid highly volatile “new” coins
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- 30% in gold: as a safe-haven core holding, hedge the risk of geopolitical situations repeatedly changing; hold long-term and don’t fuss
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- 20% in crude oil: only for short-term speculation. After the ceasefire expectation lands, reduce your position immediately—never get stuck in a stalemate

From a plunge to a rebound, in just a few days the market has completed a full cycle of sentiment swings. For ordinary retail investors, showing respect to the market, controlling your positions, and not betting everything on a single direction are the real principles for long-term survival. During this rebound, I will take profits in batches, keep plenty of cash, and wait until the situation becomes clear before making the next move.