Bitcoin Technical Analysis Weekly Report

Bitcoin has been in a corrective rebound over the past two weeks, bouncing back from the $78,000 level and maintaining a level above $80,000 for six consecutive days, but the high sell-off before the weekend seems to have curtailed this momentum.

Despite the recent upward trend of Bitcoin, the downward trend will continue unless the price effectively breaks through $92,000. Any significant drop will be marked or interpreted by the market as a signal to continue the decline; the 4H chart shows a clear ascending wedge pattern, with Bitcoin being rejected after reaching the upper area, forming a typical bearish reversal pattern, which usually indicates a pullback after a strong rebound; the support level is around $82,000--$80,000, consistent with the previous consolidation area. Meanwhile, the RSI on the 4H chart is rapidly declining, indicating that bullish momentum is diminishing. Unless the price returns to stabilize at $85,800 and breaks upward through the wedge's upper limit, there may be further retracement to $80,000 in the short term to continue acquiring low-position liquidity.

     On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's active addresses are trending downward, which could be a warning sign that the near-term bullish rally is not favored, lacks fundamental support, and could trigger the risk of a deeper crash in the event of an accident.

The best catalyst right now might be the expectation of interest rate cuts, which can truly bring more liquidity. Otherwise, traders are unlikely to have much enthusiasm in the current uncertain macro environment; they would rather miss out than take risks. Therefore, with the Federal Reserve meeting already concluded, it is certainly possible to retest the key level of $80,000.