Gate Research: BTC Hits New Swing High, TSI Strategy Yields an Annualized Return of 119%

This biweekly report provides a multidimensional analysis of the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum from April 10 to 24. Using on-chain and derivatives indicators, including long/short ratios, open interest, and funding rates, we analyze shifts in capital sentiment and market trends. Additionally, the report evaluates BTC trading strategies through a detailed backtest of the True Strength Index (TSI).

Key Takeaways:

• BTC Reaches New Swing High, ETH Volatility Surges: BTC broke past $94,000 while ETH pushed toward $1,800, signaling renewed strength in the overall market. ETH's volatility exceeded BTC's, reflecting heightened short-term speculation and increased trading activity.
• Diverging Sentiment in Derivatives Markets, BTC Bullish Bias Emerges: BTC's long/short ratio climbed post-breakout but dropped sharply by April 23, suggesting short-term profit-taking. Open interest in BTC futures rose 28% from its local low, indicating steady inflows of bullish capital. Meanwhile, ETH funding rates turned negative multiple times, signaling temporary bearish dominance.
• TSI Backtest Yields Strong Results with 119.75% Annualized Return: Quantitative backtesting was conducted using 15-minute candlesticks to evaluate TSI performance on BTC_USDT. The optimal strategy, selected from over 50,000 parameter combinations, maintains a stable annual return of 118-120%, significantly outperforming the buy-and-hold BTC strategy (43.58%), while demonstrating excellent risk control capabilities.
• Clear Optimal Parameter Range, High Strategy Stability: The optimal parameter combinations cluster around short-term EMA periods of 5-7, long-term EMA periods of 16-21, and threshold values of 10-16. These parameters yield impressive results: a maximum drawdown of 19.19%-27.12%, a Sharpe ratio of 2.30, and a Calmar ratio reaching 6.22. The strategy proves effective in both sideways and trending market conditions.
• Market Outlook & Strategy Insights: BTC and ETH remain in structurally volatile territory. While bullish capital continues to flow in, attention should be paid to shifts in funding rates and leverage positioning as potential inflection points. The TSI strategy has proven effective in detecting trends under current high-volatility conditions. Future improvements should focus on optimizing short- to mid-term parameter combinations to unlock sustainable alpha in momentum trading.

Gate Research
Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and crypto research platform, providing readers with in-depth content, including technical analysis, hot insights, market reviews, industry research, trend forecasts, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

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