Is Bitcoin's "Uptober" Here? Analysts Look to the 4-Year Cycle

Bitcoin's surge at the start of October has revived excitement for a continued rally, focusing attention on the "4-year cycle" theory. This theory posits that Bitcoin's bull and bear markets follow a predictable pattern tied to the halving events, suggesting the current cycle is in its final, peak-seeking stages.

🗓️ The 4-Year Cycle Predictions

Two analysts, using different historical metrics tied to the halving and cycle duration, have pinpointed potential peak dates in late 2025: Joao Wedson (Alphractal) bases his prediction on the subtly lengthening duration between each halving and its subsequent all-time high (ATH). Past cycles peaked at 371, 525, and 546 days post-halving. By extending this trend, Wedson believes the peak for the current cycle (post-April 19, 2024 halving) will occur at 548 days, placing the date at October 19, 2025. He gives a maximum range extending to November 1, 2025.Analyst seliseli46 uses the duration of past bull runs, noting that each has lasted approximately 152 weeks (about 1,064 days). Assuming the current cycle began at the market bottom in November 2022, adding 152 weeks places the end of the bull run around December 23, 2025.

🔍 Significance of the Cycle

Wedson's analysis suggests the current rally is extremely mature, indicating that the final price peak could be just a few weeks away. The prediction from seliseli46 aligns with the historical tendency for Bitcoin to hit an all-time high approximately 12 to 18 months after a halving event. While these historical patterns provide a framework, the article notes that the prediction remains a hypothesis subject to external factors like regulation, market sentiment, and technological advancements.

📌 Conclusion

Bitcoin's strong start to October aligns with the historical optimism of "Uptober," but analysts are viewing the current rally through the lens of the established 4-year cycle. Both major projections suggest the final, climactic price peak of the current bull run is imminent, most likely occurring between mid-October and late December 2025. This signals that the market is entering a period of extreme final volatility driven by historical precedence.

🔐 Disclaimer

This article is a summary of market analysis and commentary, focusing on technical and historical cycle indicators. The cryptocurrency market is volatile and high-risk. Always conduct your own thorough research (DYOR) and consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.