Macro indicators and analysis affecting the cryptocurrency market this week: ADP employment, non-farm employment, multi-country PMI
Last week, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 bps as scheduled. Officials expressed a relatively neutral attitude. The current US economic data is acceptable, and inflation has also slowed down more than expected. Officials are more cautious about inflation stickiness. This week focuses on US employment and unemployment data: July ADP employment, July seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
review last week
●The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 bps as scheduled, saying it would continue to assess new information and its impact on monetary policy. In addition, Powell said at the press conference: The possibility of raising interest rates in September has not been ruled out, and no interest rate cuts will be made this year. The Fed no longer predicts that the United States will fall into recession.
●The European Central Bank announced another rate hike of 25 bps. In addition, Lagarde said at a press conference that he is open to decisions in September and beyond. In September, interest rates may be raised, or interest rates may be suspended, but interest rates will not be cut.
●The initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of actual GDP in the second quarter of the United States was actually announced at 2.4%, expected to be 1.8%, and the previous value was 2.0%.
●The core PCE in the United States rose by 4.1% year-on-year in June, which was lower than expected, the smallest increase since September 2021.
●The central bank of Japan maintained the current ultra-loose monetary policy unchanged.
●IMF announced the "World Economic Outlook" for July 2023: There are still downside risks in the upward revision of world economic growth expectations.
●Basically, the initial values of the manufacturing/service PMIs in the Anglo-American, French, German and Eurozone in July were all lower than expected, and only the initial value of the Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States in July was higher than expected.
This week's key events & indicators
July 31st
●China's July official manufacturing PMI (09:30)
August 01
●China July Caixin Manufacturing PMI (09:45)
●The final value of manufacturing PMI in the Anglo-American, French and German Eurozone in July
August 02
● ADP employment in the United States in July (10,000 people) (20:15)
August 03
●The number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the week of July 29 in the United States (10,000 people) (20:30)
●The final value of the service industry PMI in the Anglo-American, French and German Eurozone in July
●The Bank of England announces interest rate resolution, meeting minutes and monetary policy report (19:00)
August 04
●U.S. unemployment rate in July (20:30)
●Non-agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment in July in the United States (10,000 people) (20:30)
(Data source: GaryMa)