#BTC 能否站上 $80K？ Waking up, as expected, the 104% tariff was implemented, US stocks turned down, the NASDAQ and S&P pulled back their gains, and the VIX approached 50 again; the Crypto Assets market also fell simultaneously.

BTC has once again fallen below $77,000, and market risk aversion is rapidly increasing. More importantly, whether our country will launch countermeasures in the next 24 hours will determine whether this wave of sentiment continues to deteriorate.
Although the market is speculating whether the final version of the tariffs on April 9 will "slightly converge", the White House's stance is basically clear: unless it helps employment and the deficit, it will not consider repealing any established tariffs. Against this backdrop, expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2025 have been further raised from 4 times to 5 times, but this kind of "easing" is essentially not good news; rather, it is the market's early bet on a future economic recession.

From the perspective of the Federal Reserve's behavioral logic, unless inflation significantly recedes, it will be difficult for even a "defensive rate cut" to land quickly. The real watershed moment may be when the US GDP data is released at the end of April.

From the crypto market perspective, the turnover rate of BTC has decreased today. URPD data shows that even though the price has fallen below $77,000, investors in the $93,000~$98,000 range have hardly reduced their positions. This indicates that the current selling pressure does not come from high-position holders, and there has been no panic selling at the top. The on-chain structure is relatively healthy. As long as subsequent policies do not fluctuate frequently, BTC and the risk market may still have room for a phased recovery.
But if we really enter an economic recession, the pressure on prices may not just be a short-term fluctuation issue.