The Bitcoin bull and bear cycle is not equal to the encryption ecosystem's bull and bear cycle.

A reader wrote in the comments: The bubble has been burst, allowing the crypto world to return to calm; everything in the market is returning to calm, which is actually a good thing and serves as a mirror to reveal the truth.

It is hard to say how other markets are doing, but I believe the crypto ecosystem should indeed return to a state of calm. As investors, we should reflect on the various ambiguous and absurd viewpoints and ideas that have accumulated over the years but are considered "normal."

In recent years, we often say that the bull and bear cycles of the crypto ecosystem are four years, and this "four-year" cycle is caused by Bitcoin's halving.

But now, looking back at the past bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem, I feel that it seems more appropriate to view the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin separately from those of the crypto ecosystem.

Before elaborating further, it is necessary to define what a bull market for Bitcoin is and what a bull market for the crypto ecosystem is.

My definition of the bull market for both is relatively simple and straightforward:

The bull market of Bitcoin is when the price of Bitcoin breaks through its previous high.

The bull market in the crypto ecosystem is when Ethereum's price breaks through its previous high.

As long as it doesn't break the previous high, I don't consider it a bull market.

Since Ethereum was launched in 2015, we will look at the bull market of Bitcoin and the crypto world after 2015.

In 2016, Bitcoin underwent a halving, and in 2017, Bitcoin entered a bull market.

In 2017, the Ethereum ecosystem experienced its first major explosion since its launch: the ICO. This also caused the price of Ethereum to enter a bull market in 2017, leading the entire crypto world into a bull market.

In 2020, Bitcoin underwent another halving, and in 2021, Bitcoin entered a new bull market.

The explosion of the DeFi ecosystem in 2020 and the explosion of NFTs, blockchain games, and other ecosystems in 2021 triggered the price of Ethereum to enter a bull market, leading the entire crypto world to once again enter a bull market.

In these two bull markets, Bitcoin's bull market and the bull market of the crypto world progressed side by side. Thus, this phenomenon left us with a strong impression:

The Bitcoin bull market that occurs every 4 years will inevitably trigger a bull market in the entire crypto world. The price of Bitcoin reaching new highs every 4 years will also inevitably lead to new highs in the prices of the entire crypto world every 4 years.

But we should think carefully:

What factors triggered the Bitcoin bull market?

What factors have triggered the bull market in the crypto ecosystem?

The direct reason that seems to have triggered the Bitcoin bull market is the halving that occurs once every four years.

I believe the more direct reason for triggering a bull market in the crypto ecosystem is the innovation within the Ethereum ecosystem, including innovations in applications, scenarios, and models.

Is there an inevitable connection between the two?

Or does the halving of Bitcoin inevitably trigger the explosion of ICOs in the Ethereum ecosystem, the explosion of DeFi, the explosion of NFTs, and the explosion of blockchain games?

I can't tell.

I think that in the past two bull markets, it was merely due to some coincidence that the crypto ecosystem experienced an explosion every four years, which just happened to resonate with Bitcoin's halving.

However, there is no necessary causal relationship between Bitcoin's halving and the explosion of innovation in applications, scenarios, and models within the crypto ecosystem.

That is to say, we cannot conclude that the crypto world will also thrive just because Bitcoin's halving leads to a bull market.

This non-inevitable relationship has been fully reflected in this round of market conditions.

In 2024, Bitcoin will halve again, and by the end of 2024, the price of Bitcoin will reach a new high again.

But has this round of the Ethereum ecosystem produced innovations that can match the lasting and powerful ones like ICOs, DeFi, NFTs, and blockchain games?

No.

So Ethereum's price did not break through the new high of the previous round, let alone the tokens of the vast majority of the crypto ecosystem.

If there is no necessary causal relationship between the two, then the greatest lesson we should learn is:

In the future, we should try to separate the trends and cycles of Bitcoin and the crypto ecosystem, and not assume that the bull and bear cycles of Bitcoin necessarily correspond to the bull and bear cycles of the crypto ecosystem.

Determining the bulls and bears of Bitcoin may still rely on the halving method every four years.

However, to determine the cycle of the entire Ethereum crypto ecosystem, we still need to focus on the ecosystem itself and find new applications, new scenarios, and new models that emerge within it.

As long as these innovations emerge, we should see the next bull market for Ethereum and even the crypto world, and this cycle does not have to be fixed.

Without these innovations, a new bull market in the crypto ecosystem is unlikely to arrive, and at most, it will only fluctuate due to various short-term stimuli, without entering a truly strong bull market.