Global Financial Turmoil Under Tariff Storm: From Stock Market, Coin Market to Deep Game

1. Event Trigger: How Tariff Policies ‘Strangle’ the Global Market

1. Policy Shocks and Market Crash

• U.S. Stock Market Crash: After Trump announced “reciprocal tariffs” on April 3, the three major U.S. stock indices plummeted collectively, with the Dow Jones falling by 5.5% in a single day, the S&P 500 index down by 5.97%, and the market value of the tech “Seven Sisters” evaporating by over $505 billion;

• A-shares follow the decline: On April 7, the three major A-share indexes opened more than 4% lower, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.77%, and panic sentiment spreads in the market;

• Cryptocurrency plummets: Bitcoin falls below $83,000, Ethereum crashes by 10%, and MEME coins on the BSC chain generally halve in value;

2. Indiscriminate decline in global assets

• Commodity Market: WTI crude oil fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a new low since 2021; the safe-haven attribute of gold briefly failed, with spot gold once dropping below $3000;

• Exchange rate fluctuations: The Japanese yen rose by 1% due to safe-haven demand, while non-US currencies like the Australian dollar and euro collectively depreciated;

2. Deep Logic: Trade War 2.0 and Market Pricing Reconstruction

1. History Repeats Itself? The Ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

• The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act triggered a global trade war that led to the Great Depression. Today, Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” cover all trading partners, with rates as high as 49%, significantly increasing the risk of global supply chain disruptions;

• Inflation spiral threat: 97% of clothing and footwear in the U.S. relies on imports, and UBS estimates that prices for daily consumer goods may rise by 10%-12%, with low-income households being the most affected.

2. The “Triple Decoupling” of China-U.S. Competition

• Trade-Technology-Financial Progression Pressure: Everbright Securities points out that tariffs are just the beginning, with subsequent technology blockades (such as AI chip export restrictions) and financial sanctions (delisting of Chinese concept stocks) likely to follow;

• China’s response logic: Huatai Securities analyzes that China’s policy toolbox is sufficient, with reserve requirement ratio cuts, consumption stimulation, and infrastructure investment likely becoming the main countermeasures, enhancing the strategic position of domestic demand;

3. The “De-risking Paradox” of Cryptocurrency

• The correlation between Bitcoin and traditional risk assets (such as the Nasdaq) has risen to 0.5, losing its “digital gold” halo;

• Leverage liquidation chain reaction: High leverage positions of MEME coin (e.g., 20x) on the BSC chain experience mass liquidations after a 5% price fluctuation, exacerbating sell-offs;

3. Trend Prediction: Structural Opportunities in the Storm

1. Short-term Market Path

• Key events: Tariffs officially take effect on April 9, China’s countermeasures are implemented on April 10. If negotiations do not restart, U.S. stocks may fall another 5%-10%;

• Cryptocurrency rebound opportunity: If BTC stabilizes at $80,000, MEME coin may rebound due to community enthusiasm, but caution is needed against regulatory crackdowns (such as the Trump family token incident);

2. Medium and Long-term Asset Allocation Logic

• Safe-haven assets: Gold (target $3100), Japanese Yen, and Treasury bond ETFs (such as TLT) remain refuges for capital;

• Counter-cyclical track:

Consumption and Infrastructure: Under the impetus of China’s domestic demand policy, leading companies in home appliances and building materials (such as Midea and Conch Cement) may benefit;

Technological independence: Domestic chips (SMIC), AI large models (Baidu Wenxin) receive policy support, and valuation recovery is expected;

• Cryptocurrency value reshaping:

RWA track: Tokenized US Treasuries (such as Ondo Finance), collateralized lending (Maple Finance) annualized returns exceed 4%, attracting institutions like Grayscale to increase their positions;

Layer 2 Technology Dividend: Ethereum’s Pectra upgrade may activate staking demand, with ARB, OP and other tokens looking bullish by 50% in the medium term.

4. Investor Strategies: Defense, Hedging, and Left-side Layout

1. Defensive Operation

• Reduce holdings in highly volatile assets: liquidate MEME coin and tech stocks, and keep 20%-30% in cash or stablecoins (USDC, DAI);

• Options protection: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000), Nasdaq ETF put options (strike price 10% below current price);

2. Hedging and Arbitrage

• Cross-market arbitrage: Long gold/Short crude oil (historical volatility spread widens to 30%), Long yen/Short Australian dollar;

• A/H share premium convergence: Increase holdings in undervalued blue-chip Hong Kong stocks (such as Tencent, Meituan), betting on capital inflow;

3. Left Layout Opportunities

• Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging: Buy in batches within the range of $76,000-$82,000, with a long-term target of $180,000 (Galaxy forecast);

• Policy beneficiaries: sectors such as environmental protection (carbon neutrality subsidies), military industry (geopolitical tensions) may perform strongly against the trend;

Conclusion: Finding Certainty in Uncertainty

The tariff storm of 2025 is both a growing pain of globalization and an opportunity for asset revaluation. History proves that trade protectionism will ultimately backfire, while technological revolutions and policy wisdom are the keys to breaking the deadlock. Investors must abandon the illusion of “quick victories” and capture structural dividends in defense, waiting for dawn in the eye of the storm.