Should airdrop tokens be held or sold? Data reveals that most projects quickly "slash" their value after issuance

The debate over whether airdropped tokens should be held long-term or sold as soon as possible has once again become the focus of the crypto market. A recent on-chain and market data analysis shows that most airdropped tokens perform far below expectations after issuance, with rapid price declines becoming the norm. This has led to the view that “cash out immediately” is gradually seen as a more rational strategy.

Crypto trader Didi shared his airdrop records from the past year on the X platform, with quite harsh results: out of 30 received airdrops, only 1 token is currently priced above its issuance price (TGE). Among them, M3M3 has dropped 99.64%, Elixir 99.50%, USUAL 97.67%; even well-known projects like Magic Eden have fallen 96.6%, Jupiter 75.9%, Monad over 39%. The only token with positive returns is Avantis, which increased by 30.4%.

Didi bluntly stated that holding altcoins long-term is inherently a low-probability event, and losses are far more common than continuous profits. He emphasized that in the current market environment, prioritizing capital preservation and timely profit-taking often makes more sense than “faith-based holding.”

Institutional research also confirms this view. Memento Research analyzed 118 token issuance events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of these tokens had fallen below their TGE valuation, with 65% experiencing declines close to or exceeding 50%, and more than half of the projects dropping over 70%. Especially for projects with an initial fully diluted valuation (FDV) over $1 billion, nearly all are in a loss state.

The study pointed out that the lowest-valuation group of projects actually has the highest survival rate, with about 40% still profitable, while high-valuation projects are generally being re-priced by the market, with median declines reaching 70%–83%. This reflects a systematic correction by the market on “overvalued, low-maturity” tokens.

Meanwhile, investor enthusiasm for airdrops is also clearly cooling. Compared to the early “simple participation, high returns” model, the airdrop mechanisms in 2025 have higher thresholds, longer cycles, more complex unlocking, but actual returns have significantly decreased. Some analysts believe that witch attacks and mechanism abuse have further eroded the fairness and attractiveness of airdrops.

Overall, the data clearly shows that most airdropped tokens face strong selling pressure and valuation reversion after issuance. In the context of normalized overvaluation and a more rational market, whether airdrops are worth holding long-term is becoming an increasingly cautious consideration.