Technical analysis of the FIL/USDT pair on timeframes

1. Identify the key trends of the market Current price against EMAs (7, 25, 99)

• Frame 1H:
• The current price (2.777) is below all EMAs (EMA7: 2.800, EMA25: 2.913, EMA99: 3.039).
• The short-term downtrend is clear.
• 4H frame:
• The current price of (2.777) is also below the EMA (EMA7: 2.920, EMA25: 3.038, EMA99: 3.182).
• The medium-term downtrend continues.
• 1D Frame:
• Current price (2.777) is below the EMA (EMA7: 3.046, EMA25: 3.291, EMA99: 4.142).
• The long-term downtrend still dominates.
• 1W Frame:
• The current price of (2.778) is below all EMAs (EMA7: 3.606, EMA25: 4.373, EMA99: 7.741).
• The long-term downtrend is very strong.

Compare trends across timeframes

• All timeframes from 1H to 1W show a consensus downward trend.

Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (ChoCH)

• 1H and 4H: There is no sign of BOS increasing. The price continues to decline after breaking the recent supports.
• 1D: The BOS decline occurred when the price broke the 3.00 support zone.
• 1W: BOS fell sharply at the 4.00 area, confirming the long-term downtrend.

(OBV market momentum, MFI)

• OBV: Cash flow decreased on all timeframes, confirming strong selling pressure.
• MFI: There is no sign of overselling, indicating that selling pressure still has room.

Open Interest (OI)

• Open Interest decreased slightly, indicating that large cash flows are withdrawing from the market instead of accumulating.

2. Identify key support and resistance zones

Strong supply/demand area

-Support:

• 1H, 4H: Short-term support at 2,736 (mức the lowest 24h).
• 1D: Next support at 2.58 (đáy ago đó).
• 1W: Long-term support at 2.00. -Resistance:
• 1H, 4H: EMA7 (~2.800) and EMA25 (~2.913).
• 1D: EMA7 (~3.046) and EMA25 (~3.291).
• 1W: EMA7 (~3.606).

Reacting at Fibonacci Retracement

• Fibonacci Retracement from the nearest high (3.486) to the bottom (2.736):
• The current price is hovering below the 23.6% (~2.920), confirming the downtrend.

Liquidity Grab

• There are signs of liquidity scanning at the 2,736 area, then the price recovers slightly but fails to break the resistance.

Next target if the support is broken

• If the price breaks the 2.736 support, the next target is the 2.58 zone and beyond the 2.00 hạn( long-term )hỗ.

3. Candlestick Pattern Analysis and Price Action

Candlestick Patterns

• 1H and 4H: Long bearish candles appeared, confirming strong selling pressure. There is no clear reversal pattern.
• 1D: Consecutive bearish candles, no signs of reversal.
• 1W: Strong bearish candle with large volume, confirming a long-term downtrend.

Fakeout and price traps

• No signs of fakeout on timeframes. The price gradually decreases according to the main trend.

Signal Confirmation with Volume & Delta Volume

• Delta Volume shows that selling pressure prevails across all timeframes.

4. Technical Indicator Analysis to Confirm Signals

MACD

• 1H and 4H: MACD Histogram is negative, no crossover or divergence signals.
• 1D: The MACD Histogram is almost zero, indicating that the market is consolidating slightly in a downtrend.
• 1W: MACD Deep Histogram, confirming the long-term downtrend.

RSI

• 1H and 4H: RSI fluctuates around 30-40, there is no sign of overselling.
• 1D and 1W: RSI descends, confirming the downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

• The price is fluctuating near the lower border of the Bollinger Bands on the 1H and 4H frames, indicating great selling pressure.
• No obvious breakouts.

OBV & MFI

• OBV decreases across all timeframes, confirming cash outflows.
• MFI shows no signs of reversal.

5. Smart Cash Flow Analysis (Smart Money Concept - SMC)

Order Block (OB)

• The price is reacting at the Order Block down on the 4H frame (~2.920).

Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (ChoCH)

• A bearish BOS occurred on the 1D and 1W frames, confirming a sharp downtrend.

Liquidity Grab

• There are signs of liquidity scanning at the 2,736 area before the price recovers slightly.

6. Determining the market stage according to the Wyckoff Method

• (Accumulation) accumulation: There are no obvious signs of accumulation.
• (Markdown) discount: The market is in a Markdown phase, with a sharp downtrend and large volume when breaking support.

7. Trading Strategy Recommendations

If the market continues to decline

-Shorts:

• Entry Point: When the price retests the EMA7 (~2.800) and is rejected.
• Target: Zone 2.58 and beyond 2.00.
• Stop-loss: Above EMA25 (~2.913).

If the market accumulates

• Waiting to buy:
• When the price makes a new bottom at 2.58 or 2.00 and a (Spring consolidation signal appears, the Volume tăng).

If the market reverses

-Buy:

• When the price exceeds the EMA25 on the 1D frame (~3.291) with a sharp increase in Volume.
• Target: Zone 3.50 (kháng resistance theo).