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![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/1745301847INDUSTRYANALYSIS.png)
## [TL；DR]: 
<a href="/price/bitcoin-btc" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">Bitcoin</a> recently broke through the 60-day moving average resistance and rose to $87,000, driving a rebound in the <a href="/price" target="_blank" class="blog_inner_link">crypto market</a>, but it is still suppressed by the 200-day moving average.

Gold simultaneously broke through $3,450, and its correlation coefficient with Bitcoin rose to 0.78, reflecting the reconstruction of the global capital risk aversion logic.

After Bitcoin experienced the largest 30% correction in this round of bull market, it is indeed possible to usher in a rebound according to the cycle law. As far as the current indicators are concerned, if the macro environment is loose, it will help the rebound to continue.

## Introduction
After experiencing a series of recent macroeconomic pessimism, whale selling, and other chaos, Bitcoin finally managed to stabilize above the 60-day moving average this week - this is often seen as a key signal from decline to rise in technical analysis. After experiencing a sharp rise in the bull market at the end of last year, Bitcoin underwent the largest correction in this round of the bull market so far, and it has now stopped falling and rebounded again. As the price of the currency stabilizes and the market recovers, some people even imagine again - is the bull market back?
 
## BTC Ends Repeated Fluctuations, Showing Positive Bullish Signs
If you want to use one word to describe Bitcoin's recent performance, perhaps "resilience" is the most appropriate. Since April 2024, the price of Bitcoin has steadily recovered from the trough, and finally broke through the suppression of the 60-day moving average on Monday and began to challenge the high point of this month. As shown in the figure below, as of April 22, 2025, it has stabilized at around $88,000, up more than 17% from the low point of this month.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453023801.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io
 
The restorative rise of BTC has also led to the recovery of the entire crypto ecosystem. According to data from SoSo Value, AI, PayFi, DeFi, and other sectors have led the gains, especially the AI ​​sector, which combines blockchain technology with real-world applications. It has become a hot spot for cautious capital entry and has led the gains for three consecutive days. The turmoil in the peripheral markets provides a different footnote to the recovery of the crypto market. U.S. stocks have been stumbling under the shadow of Trump's policies and tariff uncertainties. The three major indexes closed down for the third consecutive week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 2.66%, the S&P 500 down 1.5%, and the Nasdaq down 2.62%. Against the backdrop of a decline in technology stocks, Bitcoin rose against the trend, showing a relative independence.

Meanwhile, gold hit a record high for the 55th time in the past 12 months, with the latest price increase almost synchronized with Bitcoin's rebound, and the narrative of safe-haven assets seems to be converging again after many years.

However, the stabilization and rebound of Bitcoin remain unclear. When traditional markets hesitate due to policy uncertainty, Bitcoin often serves as a safe haven for funds; however, this long-term characteristic is still unstable. Typical data indicate that the Bitcoin premium rate in South Korea has recently returned to above 2%, reaching a peak of 2.97% on April 15, which shows strong local demand. In contrast, the Coinbase Premium Index in the US market shows a discount, indicating the divergence of investor sentiment in the two countries.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453024212.jpeg)
Source: CryptoQuant
 
In fact, since the US dollar and the Korean won are the main fiat currency corridors for Bitcoin, their opposing price signals have a significant impact on global price discovery. When these two hubs diverge, the tension between the discount and premium shapes Bitcoin's overall trend rather than directly offsetting bullish or bearish signals.
 
## Signals Are Appearing Frequently, Is It A Prelude to A Bull Market or Just A False Alarm?
Although the macro situation is still unclear, many signals have emerged in the market, indicating that the rebound in the crypto market may not be short-lived. For example, I saw a recent article on Coinmonks stating that the 3-day MACD indicator showed a bullish crossover. This signal last appeared in September 2023, and then Bitcoin soared from $60,000 to more than $100,000. Historical data shows that 5 of the nearly 6 times this signal appeared, it triggered a strong rise.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is fighting fiercely near the 200-day EMA. This moving average is not only a key support level in technical analysis, but also a watershed between bull and bear trends. If it can break through and stand firm, the confirmation signal of the resumption of the bull trend will be extremely clear; If rejected, it could return to the lows. Bitcoin has been fluctuating around this level over the past few days, as if testing the market's resolve. On the daily chart, it is also trying to break through the downward trendline formed since January 2024. If successful, market sentiment could shift quickly to a positive outlook.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453024533.jpeg)
Source: coinglass
 
On-chain data also conveys positive news. According to CryptoQuant's on-chain data, the selling pressure of long-term holders (i.e., the holdings of LTH on exchanges) has dropped to the lowest point in the past year at 1.1%. This shows that Bitcoin LTH holders are now choosing to hold assets instead of taking profits.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453024744.jpeg)
Source: CryptoQuant
 
Additionally, on-chain data indicates that, despite a decline in Bitcoin prices from March to April, the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC reached a four-month high. The holding structure of Bitcoin whales is changing, with the number of mid-level holders holding more than 100 BTC slightly increasing to 18,026, while retail investors are reducing their holdings, and the number of addresses holding less than 10 BTC continues to decrease. Whales are increasing their holdings at a rate three times the annual rate of new Bitcoin, and the balance of Bitcoin trading platforms continues to decline.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453024895.jpeg)
Source: glassnode
 
There is another interesting perspective - the spillover effect of the gold market. The author sees a view that a large amount of funds flowing into the gold market will drive some safe-haven funds to migrate to Bitcoin, which has greater liquidity, thereby forming a value rebalancing across asset classes. This seems to be understood as a complementary relationship between the two in times of economic uncertainty, that is, gold, as the most consensus-based traditional safe-haven asset, will be the first to respond to inflation expectations and monetary easing signals, while Bitcoin will become a latecomer in the context of the ever-expanding narrative. Historical data does show that there is a significant subsequent correlation between gold and Bitcoin: whenever gold hits a new high, Bitcoin usually follows up and breaks through the new high within 100-150 days.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453025076.jpeg)
Source: Lawrence（MarsBit） 
 
However, not all signals indicate that the market will usher in an opportunity for a comprehensive rise. As we recently pointed out in the article "Will the BTC Bull Market Still Be There?", the expectation of liquidity contraction overwhelms everything; BTC is still fluctuating in a wide range of $80,000 to $100,000, and the short-term trend will still depend on how investors interpret policy changes and the global liquidity environment.
 
## Observation: The Bull Market May Return, But the Full Bull Market Will Never Come Back
Market opinions on the current market are clearly divided. CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan believes that this is just a typical correction, not a precursor to a bear market. He pointed out that the previous price increase was relatively mild, the market overheating was limited, and the downside risks were controllable. Last week, Coinbase's monthly report showed that both Bitcoin and the COIN50 index had fallen below their respective 200-day moving averages, a signal that the market may be in the early stages of a long-term downward trend. This is consistent with the trend of declining total market capitalization and shrinking venture capital, both of which are important features of the possible arrival of the "crypto winter."
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453025537.jpeg)
Source: Coinbase
 
However, in my opinion, after Bitcoin experienced the largest 30% correction in this round of bull market, it may indeed usher in a rebound according to the cycle law. After all, every major adjustment in history is often accompanied by a violent rebound. Regarding the current indicators, if the macro environment remains loose, it will facilitate the rebound's continuation. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's breakthrough above the 200-day moving average has not yet been confirmed. Although the RSI indicator shows signs of recovery, it is still far from a retaliatory rebound. The macro environment is even more mixed. Although liquidity is increasing, trade frictions and recession risks remain a constant threat.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453025728.jpeg)
Source: @DefiWimar
 
In conclusion, the structural differences of this rebound cannot be ignored:

Liquidity trap emerges: Although BTC's market value has rebounded to $1.7 trillion, only 10 Altcoins (excluding stablecoins) have outperformed BTC in the past 90 days, and their share of total market value has fallen below 27%, a new low since 2021. This "head bloodsucking" phenomenon means that the market risk appetite has not been truly repaired, and whether the general rise brought about by BTC's market value accounting for more than 60% will be replicated in the future remains to be seen.

Regulatory arbitrage risk: The settlement of the US SEC's lawsuit against Ripple may trigger a new round of regulatory arbitrage. This regulatory game may exacerbate structural market rebounds, such as some compliant currencies that are potentially approved by ETFs.

Technical concerns: Among the 30 well-known bull market escape signals, no indicator has hit the target yet, but historical patterns show that the top signal of Bitcoin is becoming less and less significant each time. This means that the current price already includes a higher expected premium, and the top indicator has the risk of failure. Once the macro data is not as expected, it may cause a stampede.

Of course, from a long-term perspective, Bitcoin's Fibonacci expansion target is $155,000, which is not out of reach. But to achieve this goal, I believe that the market needs more catalysts - perhaps a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, perhaps a further release of global liquidity, or perhaps a full recovery of the Altcoin sector.
 ![](https://gimg2.gateimg.com/image/article/17453026039.jpeg)
Source: Gate.io
 
In short, we may still be in the second half of Bitcoin's four-year upward cycle. Various bullish and bearish signals are emerging, and operations are becoming more difficult. For the majority of investors, especially short-term investors, the real test may have just begun.



<div class="blog-details-info">
<div>Author:**Charle Y.**, Gate.io Researcher
<div>Translator:Joy Z.
<div class="info-tips">\*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions. All investments carry inherent risks; prudent decision-making is essential.
<div>\*Gate.io reserves all rights to this article. Reposting of the article will be permitted provided Gate.io is referenced. In all cases, legal action will be taken due to copyright infringement.
</div>


Bitcoin Stabilizes And Rises, Is the Crypto Bull Market Returning Again?