NVIDIA Stock Price Update: Upside Potential Despite Antitrust Volatility

Latest Revenue and Business Performance

NVIDIA posted revenue of $46.7 billion for the second fiscal quarter ending July 2025, marking a roughly 6% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 56% surge year-over-year. Data center segment revenue hit $41.1 billion, showcasing pronounced growth versus both prior periods. The next-generation Blackwell architecture drove a 17% sequential jump in data center equipment sales.

Non-GAAP gross margin stood at approximately 72.7%, factoring in recent gains from H20 chip inventory. NVIDIA’s current share price on the U.S. market hovers around $177.75. Shares remained volatile over the past year despite strong upward momentum.

Impact of China’s Antitrust Investigation

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation recently launched a preliminary review into NVIDIA’s takeover of Mellanox Technologies, citing possible antitrust violations related to the merger.

The announcement triggered a short-term decline in NVIDIA’s stock price. Investors are especially wary that, should fines or strategic adjustments become necessary, NVIDIA’s revenue from China—a critical market—could come under strain.

Analyst Forecasts and Target Price Trends

Despite ongoing regulatory challenges, most analysts remain bullish on NVIDIA’s outlook:

• The consensus 12-month price target is approximately $211.26, with projections ranging from a low of $100 to a high of $250.

• Most investment ratings are “Strong Buy.”

• AI, data center infrastructure, and sustained chip demand continue to drive NVIDIA’s long-term growth prospects.

Potential Risks for Investors

• Uncertainty in Chinese Regulatory Policy — Severe investigation outcomes could lead to fines, operational restrictions, or a halt in sales of certain products in China.

• Export and International Trade Constraints — U.S. export controls on advanced AI chips may erode NVIDIA’s competitive edge in targeted markets.

• Heightened Competition — Beyond AMD and Intel, new entrants in the AI chip sector are gaining ground, which could divert market share.

• High Valuation Risks — There is a sizable gap between current and target prices. This suggests potential upside. However, weak performance or waning market sentiment could increase the risk of a correction.

Conclusion and Outlook

China’s regulatory probe may pressure NVIDIA’s stock in the near term. If the company navigates policy risks effectively and sustains momentum in AI and data center growth, there is meaningful intermediate- to long-term upside potential. Shares are currently near $180. Reaching a target range of $200–$220 remains plausible, depending on evolving policy and competitive dynamics.