What to Expect from Bitcoin in Early 2026 — Will Seasonal Tailwinds Still Hold?

In the first quarter of 2026, Bitcoin faces new expectations. The main catalyst is not the launch of bank-issued stablecoins, but the rapid opening of traditional wealth channels. Vanguard and Bank of America have both eased restrictions on crypto investments. With seasonal tailwinds, these changes could help offset the market volatility seen at the end of 2025.

Vanguard, which manages $11 trillion in assets, removed its crypto investment ban in early December. The firm now allows 50 million clients to trade spot ETFs for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other cryptocurrencies. While Vanguard does not issue its own crypto products, its vast retail network could bring significant new capital to the market.

Starting January 5, Bank of America will let Merrill Lynch and its private banking advisors actively recommend crypto ETPs. Advisors can now guide qualified clients to allocate 1%–4% of their assets to leading US Bitcoin ETFs. This move gives access to tens of billions of dollars in previously excluded wealth.

According to River, nearly 60% of the 25 largest US banks are now directly selling, providing custody for, or offering advisory services related to Bitcoin.

In early 2026, buyers are more likely to be retirement accounts adding a 2% Bitcoin position, rather than high-leverage crypto funds.

Since 2013, Bitcoin’s average return in February has been about 15%, and the average Q1 gain exceeds 50%. However, Q1 2025 posted the worst performance in a decade, falling 12%, showing that historical patterns are not guaranteed.

Market expectations have shifted lower. Standard Chartered cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $300,000 to $150,000. Any rebound will depend more on actual capital inflows than on momentum trading.

On December 16, a proposed rule was released that would allow state-chartered bank subsidiaries to issue payment stablecoins. The rule requires full 1:1 reserve backing and bans arbitrary rehypothecation.

However, this rule is subject to a 60-day comment period and is unlikely to take effect before late 2026, with meaningful scale expected in 2027 at the earliest. There will be no practical impact on Q1.

Still, the long-term impact is significant. Compliant stablecoins issued by banks could become settlement assets for ETF market makers, boost derivatives market liquidity, and help make public blockchains a trusted institutional settlement layer.

As a result, the Q1 outlook boils down to a numbers game: How many Vanguard clients will add 1%–2% Bitcoin holdings, and how much capital will flow in through Bank of America’s channels?

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