Is Bitcoin Really Entering a Bear Market? Benjamin Cowen Analyzes BTC Decline Structure: Price May Still Face Deeper Pullback

March 13 News, Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse (ITC), recently stated in his latest market analysis that Bitcoin’s current market structure already shows typical bear market characteristics. He believes that although some analysts still view the current trend as a temporary correction within a bull market, based on historical price behavior and cycle patterns, Bitcoin may have entered a new bear market phase.

Data shows that since 2026, Bitcoin’s price has continued to weaken. Currently, BTC has fallen about 45% from its all-time high of $126,000, with a year-to-date decline of 20.5%. The latest trading price hovers around $69,500. Despite the downward trend, many market opinions still see this as a deep correction within a bull market, but Cowen’s assessment diverges significantly from mainstream narratives.

Cowen pointed out that Bitcoin bear markets often exhibit a confusing pattern: longer periods of upward movement followed by rapid declines. Prices may slowly climb for several months, then quickly drop below previous highs and hit new lows within one or two weeks. Meanwhile, market sentiment tends to become increasingly optimistic during the rally, then rapidly turn to panic during sharp declines. This pattern tends to repeat until a new, lower price range is established.

He cited the November 2025 market as an example of this pattern. At that time, Bitcoin hit a low of $80,537 on November 21, then rose for about 54 days, reaching $97,939 on January 14, 2026, a gain of approximately 21.6%. However, over the next 23 days, Bitcoin rapidly declined by 38.8%, falling to $59,930 on February 6, 2026, not only erasing previous gains but also dropping below the prior cycle low.

Cowen believes this “longer upward phase followed by a faster decline” market rhythm is a typical feature of bear markets. He also noted that there are many so-called “price enthusiasts” in the market—people who remain extremely optimistic regardless of market changes—sometimes mistaken for rational market analysis.

From a valuation perspective, he provided another reference metric. In terms of gold valuation, Bitcoin’s current valuation roughly returns to December 2017 levels. At that time, Bitcoin was worth about 14 ounces of gold, which was a significant high point in the previous cycle. This suggests that, when measured in gold, investors who bought and held Bitcoin in 2017 would have nearly matched gold’s performance.

Cowen further pointed out that the current price structure is markedly different from the bull market trend of 2023 to 2025. During a bull run, Bitcoin typically experiences multiple corrections but quickly reaches new highs, whereas the current pattern shows rapid drops below previous lows after rallies.

He also warned that historical data indicates that lows formed in February are often not the macro bottom for Bitcoin. For example, in the 2014, 2018, and 2022 cycles, the lows in February were subsequently broken. Therefore, the low around $59,000 in February 2026 may not be the final bottom of this cycle.