Bitcoin Breaks Key Resistance, $78,000 Target in Sight, but Pullback Risk Remains

Gate News reports that on March 16, Bitcoin’s price recently broke through the $73,700 level, rising nearly 11% over the past seven days, mainly driven by a breakout of the classic cup and handle pattern. Technical indicators suggest Bitcoin could challenge $78,000, but it still faces resistance and potential pullback risks in the short term.

Since breaking above the handle resistance line on March 13, Bitcoin quickly surged toward $74,300, followed by an upper shadow, indicating sellers are defending the resistance zone. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator shows buying pressure has slightly weakened, forming a bearish divergence, which suggests some large investors may be taking profits. However, the CMF remains positive, indicating overall capital inflow.

Exchange net positions show continuous outflows of Bitcoin, increasing from -38,412 BTC on March 9 to -65,393 BTC on March 15, indicating investors are still accumulating spot holdings, reducing available supply and supporting the price. Meanwhile, leverage in the derivatives market has decreased, with open interest dropping from $26.14 billion on March 5 to about $22.78 billion. Funding rates have turned slightly negative, reflecting cautious market sentiment, which helps reduce large-scale liquidations and maintain a stable upward trend.

Currently, the first major resistance is at $74,300. A successful break above this level could open the door to the next key level above $75,100. Closing daily candles above this zone would confirm bullish continuation, potentially targeting the $78,000 to $79,000 range. On the downside, initial support is at $72,000, followed by $70,400 and $68,900. A break below $68,900 could weaken the recent bullish structure.

Overall, Bitcoin’s rally is supported by spot accumulation and reduced leverage, but breaking through key resistance levels is a prerequisite for reaching $78,000. Investors should watch for short-term pullbacks and critical price zones.