XRP's key support level of $1.36 is a watershed: can it rebound by 11% or will it continue to decline?

Gate News reports that XRP is currently oscillating around $1.36, continuing the “lower highs” structure formed over the past few months. Since hitting a high of $2.58 in November 2025, each rebound has quickly encountered selling pressure, with price highs consistently declining, leading to cautious market sentiment. Behind this trend, the stop-loss behavior of short-term holders has become a key variable, making it difficult for the rebounds to sustain a trend.

On-chain data shows that the NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss) of short-term holders has long remained in negative territory. When losses narrow, investors tend to prefer exiting rather than continuing to hold, resulting in each rebound transforming into a “liquidation event.” This behavioral pattern continues to reinforce, leading to a lack of sustained buying support in the market and a gradual weakening of the price structure.

Meanwhile, whale sell-offs continue to exert further pressure on the market. Addresses holding between 100 million to 1 billion XRP have cumulatively sold about 1.32 billion XRP over the past six months. This continuous release of tokens has weakened market confidence and explains why XRP frequently encounters resistance during rebounds. The pressure from the supply side has not significantly eased, which is a crucial reason for the current weak trend.

However, some technical changes are emerging. The daily RSI has formed a typical bullish divergence, with prices making new lows while the momentum indicator rises, which usually indicates a short-term rebound window. Historically, similar structures have driven XRP to rebound by about 21%, so the current market still retains some room for recovery.

From a key level perspective, $1.36 has become a core dividing line for short-term trends. If the price can effectively stabilize above this level and achieve daily confirmation, it may test the $1.40, $1.45, and $1.50 regions above, corresponding to an approximately 11% upside potential. However, if the rebound continues to follow the previous pattern, the area around $1.50 may still become a new selling pressure zone.

Conversely, once the $1.36 support is broken, the downside space will open up, with $1.29 and $1.20 potentially becoming the next targets. This implies that the market has not completed its bottoming process, and the adjustment cycle may still continue.

Currently, XRP is at a structural choice stage. The short-term rebound and the mid-term trend reversal still depend on the outcome of the interplay between capital behavior and key price levels.