XRP Price Analysis: A death cross overlapping with wavering positions—$1.29 may become the April line between life and death

Gate News, with April 2026 approaching, XRP is still trading within the downward channel it has been in since July 2025. In March, it fell about 1.94% and has been weak for the sixth consecutive month. Although historical data shows that April is usually an up month, the current technical structure and on-chain signals indicate that the market is under clear pressure, so the near-term outlook remains cautious.

From a technical perspective, the 3-day chart has formed a death cross: the 50-day EMA has crossed below the 200-day EMA, continuing the typical bearish signal. Similar structures in the past triggered pullbacks of 30% or more; this round of correction has already accumulated about 19%. If price continues to track along the lower boundary of the channel, the potential downside could expand to 35% or even higher. Meanwhile, the RSI has shown a hidden bearish divergence, with momentum failing to confirm a price recovery, suggesting that the pullback has not finished yet.

On-chain data further verifies the source of the pressure. HODL Waves shows that medium-term holders with positions of 6 to 12 months shifted from accumulation to distribution in late March. Their share has fallen from 23.54% to about 22.98%. This cohort is generally regarded as “steadfast capital,” and changes in their behavior weaken structural support in the market. The cost distribution indicates that roughly 19.6 million XRP are clustered in the $1.27 to $1.28 range, forming a key support band. Once it is lost, selling pressure may intensify significantly.

The derivatives market also has risks. Open interest has rebounded after a sharp decline, and combined with a higher funding rate, it suggests that a new round of bullish leverage is being built. However, under a predominantly bearish trend environment, these long positions are more likely to trigger cascading liquidations when price breaks down, which would amplify volatility.

For key price levels, $1.29 has become the core near-term defense line. If it breaks down and stays below it, it could point to the $1.20 area, or even the $0.96 region. On the upside, price would likely need to reclaim $1.45 and hold above $1.50 before the downward structure can ease; a break above $1.60 would strengthen trend-reversal signals. At this stage, XRP’s direction still depends on whether support can hold and whether the capital structure can improve.