U.S. consumer confidence rebounds, with inflation expectations significantly rising

BlockBeats message: On March 31, the Conference Board consumer confidence index in the U.S. in March edged up by 0.8 points to 91.8, higher than February’s 91.0. The current index, based on consumers’ assessment of the state of the business and labor markets, rose by 4.6 points to 123.3. The expectations index fell by 1.7 points to 70.9. The pressure from rising costs driven by tariff pass-through and the surge in oil prices has been reflected in other indicators such as inflation expectations.

“Consumer confidence rose slightly again in March, mainly because improvements in views of the current situation offset a slight weakening in future expectations,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board. “Three of the five subcomponents improved in March, and overall confidence rose slightly for the second consecutive month. But since 2021, the index overall has still been on a downward trend.” The data also shows that amid an oil price shock triggered by the Iran war, consumers’ average and median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose sharply in March to the highest level since August 2025. The net share of consumers who believe interest rates will rise over the next 12 months jumped from 34.9% to 42.4%. (Jin Shi)