Sell-off warning lights are flashing red! 47% of circulating Bitcoin has been “trapped,” and long-term holders are also taking losses and cashing out

The cryptocurrency market is once again blowing in a fierce chill. Data from CEX.IO shows that, among the bitcoins currently circulating in the market, nearly half have fallen below their cost basis and are in a loss position. Even the most patient long-term investors of the past have begun to cut their losses and exit.
According to a CEX.IO report, the “Bitcoin Impact Index” skyrocketed by 13 points last week to 57.4, marking the largest weekly increase since January of this year.

This index primarily measures the market pressure faced by different investor groups by analyzing on-chain activity, the trading heat of ETFs and derivatives, and changes in market liquidity.
The index is out of 100, and the current 57.4 has fallen into the so-called “High Impact” danger zone. Based on historical experience, when the index enters this zone, it often signals that a “large-scale sell-off wave” is about to arrive. For example, in 2018, 2022, and earlier this year, similar warning signs appeared before the market experienced double-digit crashes.
What’s even more noteworthy is that market pressure is gradually spreading to long-term holders (holding coins for more than 6 months). Just a week ago, when Bitcoin was still above $70,000, these investors were taking profits, but the situation has now clearly reversed.
The report notes that among these wallets, about 4.6 million bitcoins are already in a loss (equivalent to roughly 30% of total holdings by long-term holders). Moreover, the losses they realized last week (meaning the financial loss caused after actually selling) also set the bleakest record since 2023.
CEX.IO points out that this divergence between “price action” and “on-chain confidence” has historically been regarded as a warning sign. For instance, similar situations occurred in mid-2018 and mid-2022, after which Bitcoin then saw pullbacks of more than 25%.
Near-term holders are in an even more difficult position. The report shows that currently, 47% of the bitcoins in circulation are in a loss state, marking the first time since the most pressure-tight period in February of this year. In other words, nearly half of Bitcoin holders are now in a “trapped” situation.
At the same time, the funding momentum that previously supported the market has also started to fade. What used to be net stablecoin inflows averaging as much as $250 million per day has now reversed into net outflows of $292 million. Even ETF issuers and miners have shifted from “accumulating coins” to “selling them off.”