CryptoQuant: If macro risks ease, Bitcoin could rebound to $71,500 to $81,200

BlockBeats message, April 2, according to The Block, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant released a report stating that despite ongoing institutional buy pressure, Bitcoin spot demand is still in a “deep contraction” state. As of late March, over the past 30 days, apparent demand has grown by about -63,000 Bitcoins, indicating that sell pressure in the market remains stronger than buy pressure. CryptoQuant noted that “although institutions are accelerating their purchases, overall apparent demand is still contracting, indicating that selling by retail and other market participants exceeds the incremental buy volume from institutions.” This demand contraction has continued from the end of November 2025 to the present, “confirming that the broader market is still in a phase of distributing holdings.”

“Whales” holding between 1,000 and 10,000 Bitcoins have turned into net distributors. Over the past year, their combined holdings have decreased by about 188,000 Bitcoins, and the 365-day moving average line remains in a downward trend. “Historically, sustained negative accumulation by whales has coincided with long-term weakness in prices. The current readings indicate that selling remains a major structural headwind.” Coinbase premium (tracking U.S. buy-side interest) was also mostly negative when Bitcoin fell into the $65,000 to $70,000 range, showing that U.S. investors have not yet returned to the market at scale.

If macro conditions improve, especially if the U.S.-Iran conflict de-escalates, CryptoQuant believes Bitcoin could rebound to a range of $71,500 to $81,200, with $81,200 being the price cap for traders’ realized prices, which was topped out during the bear-market rebound in January 2026.