Analysis: After BTC officially enters the second half of the bear market, even the final dip is unlikely to break below $45,500.

BlockBeats message, April 3, analyst Murphy said he has observed a crossover between the on-chain average turnover cost (yellow line) for BTC holders who have held it for 1-2 years and the on-chain average turnover cost (orange line) for BTC holders who have held it for 1-3 months. At the level of on-chain data, this signal can be almost 100% confirmed, marking that BTC has officially entered the latter half of the bear market.

In addition, Murphy also said that the Bitcoin long-term valuation metric CVDD proposed by the well-known on-chain analyst Willy Woo reached $45,410 at the end of last month, rising only $506 compared with February 10. This reflects that early large whale holders have already sharply reduced their holdings and even nearly stopped on-chain turnover. CVDD is one of the few metrics in BTC history that has never failed—price has always remained above CVDD; at the bear market bottom, it only gets infinitely close to it but never falls below it. Therefore even if there is still a “final sell-off,” BTC will not be below roughly $45,500. Theoretically, at most there would be about a 30% downside, but in reality it is very likely to be far smaller than that.