Gate News report, April 3, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. posted that the Bitcoin derivatives market currently shows a bearish-dominant pattern. The Bitcoin Position Index’s 30-day simple moving average (SMA-30d) reached a local high of +3 when the price was $73,925 on March 17; afterward, it continued to decline to -3.1, reflecting the ongoing accumulation of short positions. In the same period, the price of Bitcoin fell from $74,883 to $66,603, with the SMA-30d trending down in tandem with the price. The liquidation oscillation indicator rebounded from 2.9% in mid-March and continued rising to 18.6%, indicating that longs are continuously facing strong forced liquidation pressure. The red histogram dominated by short liquidations has not appeared since October 2025. Bitcoin is down about 11% from its peak, and the current derivatives market structure shows no foundation to support a reversal. The analyst warned of the main downside risks: if liquidation pressure persists and the holding SMA-30d remains below the zero line, the bearish setup will become further entrenched, and the pressure for Bitcoin to break below $66,000 will intensify.
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