Citrini analyst strides into Iran carrying a suitcase full of cash and a pack of cigars—back with the latest on the Strait of Hormuz

As the market broadly tries to understand the situation through two extreme narratives—“blockade” or “open passage”—the latest report from New York research firm Citrini Research attempts to break out of this oversimplified framework. Citrini Research sends an analyst operating under the internal codename “Analyst #3,” who sets out from New York, travels via Dubai and the Fujairah oil port, and ultimately enters the northern Omani region of Musandam Peninsula, attempting to physically enter the Strait’s waters.

Through an exceptionally high-risk, even near-adventurous, on-the-ground investigation, the firm reaches a key conclusion: the Strait of Hormuz is not being fully blockaded; rather, it is being redefined and managed by Iran.

Citrini dispatches the analyst community’s 007 to press into the Strait of Hormuz

This report has drawn attention in the market not only because its conclusion runs counter to mainstream expectations, but also because of its research approach—directly sending analysts into the front lines of the conflict to observe firsthand, rather than relying on satellite imagery or secondary information.

The report notes that after the United States and Israel carried out military actions against Iran at the end of February, Iran did indeed take countermeasures against the Strait of Hormuz. However, this key waterway, which carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas transport, has not been fully paralyzed as the outside world expected; instead, it has entered a new order of selective passage.

To clarify the true situation, Citrini Research sends an analyst with the internal codename “Analyst #3,” who departs from New York, goes via Dubai and the Fujairah oil port, and ultimately enters the northern Omani Musandam Peninsula, attempting to physically enter the Strait’s waters.

According to the description, the analyst carries recording and photography equipment, a case of cash, a pack of cigars, marijuana, and an emergency locating device. At the local level, he temporarily hires vessels to sail using cash, and even approaches Iranian waters without GPS. In an environment where drones circle and Iranian Revolutionary Guard patrol boats are active frequently, he completes the observation mission, and is ultimately intercepted by a coast guard unit at one point and the devices are seized.

Despite the high risk of the operation, this on-site investigation provides key firsthand information. The report states that Iran has already established a shipping management system in the area around Qeshm Island and Larak Island. All vessels wishing to pass through the Strait must submit detailed information through an intermediary, including the shipowner’s background, cargo content, and crew information, and pay a certain fee.

Vessels granted permission to pass will receive an authorization code, and some may even receive escort; those that do not meet the requirements must wait outside. This means the Strait is not closed—it has instead transformed into a highly controlled, selective passage mechanism.

Report conclusion: Iran wants to turn the Strait of Hormuz into the Suez Canal

Citrini Research believes Iran’s strategic goal is not to cut off global energy supplies, but to gain real sovereignty and negotiating leverage by controlling shipping lanes. This model is similar to the management system Turkey has long imposed on the Bosporus, or the toll and passage mechanism of the Suez Canal. In fact, Iranian officials publicly stated at the end of March that they plan to establish a new strait management framework, requiring all vessels to apply for permits and pay fees.

The report also reveals a key phenomenon: while the United States maintains military pressure, multiple energy importing countries—including Japan, France, and Greece—have chosen varying degrees of coordination with Iran to ensure that tankers can continue to pass. This has created a special condition in which “war and trade coexist”: conflict has not blocked flows; instead, it has reshaped the rules governing flow.

For the market, the impact of this situation is far more complex than a simple blockade. The report points out that even if transportation is not fully interrupted, freight rates may still remain high, and uncertainty in energy supply will persist long term. At the same time, shipping structure has started to adjust—for example, super-large tankers are decreasing, while the proportion of medium and small vessels and liquefied natural gas carriers is rising.

Citrini Research emphasizes that if the Strait were truly completely blockaded, global energy inventories would be exhausted quickly, causing catastrophic economic impact. And for that very reason, most countries choose a compromise between reality and risk rather than escalating conflict.

The report’s final conclusion states that the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz is neither “closed” nor “open normally,” but a new order that is taking shape: under low-key but persistent control, each vessel that passes becomes part of a geopolitical game.

This article, in which Citrini analysts enter Iran with a case of cash and a pack of cigars—and bring back the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz—first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.