On April 1, 2025, the Crypto Assets market is undergoing unprecedented structural adjustments. With the countdown to the implementation of tariff policies, the Secondary Market shows a clear defensive posture.

As the second largest Crypto Asset by market capitalization, ETH's recent performance can be described as "the vanguard of the bear market."
From a technical perspective, the $1750 level, as the front low of 25 years, is on shaky ground, and the market generally expects it to possibly dip into the $1500 range. There are deep-seated reasons behind this trend:
The Trust Crisis of Consensus Mechanism: Since the completion of the POS mechanism upgrade in 2024, the market recognition of ETH has continued to decline. Traditional POW believers argue that this shift undermines the decentralized nature of blockchain. Data shows that the degree of centralization of nodes under the POS mechanism has increased by 47% compared to the POW era, which directly leads to a decrease in institutional willingness to allocate funds.
Systemic risks of the whale ecosystem: On-chain data analysis indicates that the top 100 ETH addresses account for 38% of the holdings, with leading whales forming complex financial leverage through collateralized lending. The current prolonged low volatility in the market is essentially a game between exchanges and whales — when retail liquidity dries up, large liquidations become a new means of wealth redistribution.
Marginalization of Institutional Allocation: In contrast to the explosive subscription of Bitcoin spot ETFs, institutional products for ETH are almost going unnoticed. Wall Street investment banks generally believe that as much as 23% of DAPPs in the ETH ecosystem exhibit characteristics of a Ponzi scheme, which deters institutional investors due to this systemic risk. Recently, CME ETH futures open interest has decreased by 61% year-on-year, confirming this trend.
While ETH continues to be under pressure, Bitcoin is quietly building a strategic bottom. The technical analysis shows that the $73,500-$74,000 range constitutes a strong support zone, which not only serves as a breakout platform for December 2024 but also resonates with the policy cycle of the Trump election.
Market Mapping of Political Cycles: Although Trump's government tariff policy suppresses risk assets in the short term, historical experience shows that policy uncertainty in election years often gives rise to "safe-haven asset premiums." During the 2024 election period, Bitcoin prices increased by 42% within three months, and this linkage effect between political cycles and market sentiment is worth noting.
Potential turning point of macro liquidity: Although the Federal Reserve maintained a hawkish stance at the March meeting, the pace of balance sheet reduction has decreased from 25 billion to 5 billion per month. More critically, after the implementation of the tariff policy on April 2, the market expects that the U.S. Treasury will initiate a new round of debt exchange plan, which could bring incremental liquidity to the crypto assets market.
Cross-asset class price comparison advantage: Currently, the correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has reached 0.68, setting a historical high. Against the backdrop of challenges to the U.S. dollar credit system, the narrative of "digital gold" is reconstructing market pricing logic. Notably, the premium rate of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has narrowed from -18% to -7%, reflecting a marginal improvement in institutional sentiment.
- The unfolding path of the April market trend
Based on the analysis above, the market in April may exhibit the following characteristics:
Short-term release and mid-term repair: Before and after the implementation of the tariff policy, the market may experience a final round of panic selling, forming a "golden pit". Historical data shows that in the 20 trading days following similar events, the Crypto Assets index has an average rebound of 37%. Structural opportunities in sector rotation.
After Bitcoin completes its bottoming process, funds will concentrate on two types of assets:
Value undervaluation: High-quality projects in the top 50 by market capitalization that have fallen over 60% in 2025. Narrative-driven: Innovative tracks related to concepts such as halving cycles, AI + Web3, like the recently stirring WLD.
Key window of macro variables: The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in May will become a turning point for the market. If inflation data shows a greater-than-expected decline, expectations for interest rate cuts may begin to materialize earlier. This shift in the liquidity environment will provide systemic valuation reconstruction opportunities for the Crypto Assets market.