In the crypto world, the alt season has been called out for more than a year, and the more it is shouted, the more it drops to zero. Fortunately, I don't focus on altcoins. Yesterday, I accidentally saw Mask with a daily fall of 40%, and then another fall of over 10%. In just over three months from the beginning of the year, the coin price has shrunk by 400%. I can't help but sigh that this former pioneer of the pump during the bull and bear transition (often rising by 30% daily) has fallen to such a state.

This round of halving cycle has laid the foundation for institutional cattle, and from this round onwards, it will basically be institutional cattle in the future. In the next round of halving cycle, ETH and the plate leaders associated with it cannot play, at most it is an over-falling rebound after the weekly bottom before the BTC halving. After the cottage spot, you can only take XRP, LTC, ADA, which are relatively stable and more flexible SUI, SOL.

On the contract, ETH is a target for shorting at high points in the long term. In the past two years, ETH only had two days with the largest gains: one was around last year's Spring Festival when it stabilized at 2280 and rebounded to 2796 overnight, and another was around May 20 last year when it pumped 700 points in one day through the ETF. Most of the time, it has been fluctuating or falling, with poor short-term profit-making effects; going long on ETH in contracts is mostly a nightmare. The ETF is a short-term positive, but a long-term negative; it is just a tool for capital to harvest retail investors.

BTC and SOL are the coins with the greatest short-term contract profit effects in the past two years. In the previous two years, I went long, but this year and next year will switch to mainly going short. Tides rise and fall, the law of all things.