#关税政策后市场分析 Trump's "tariff big stick" ignites the crypto world, Bitcoin flash crash, over 150,000 people Get Liquidated...

Behind the Plunge: Tariffs, Stagflation, and the Triangle Kill of the "Canvas Door Market"

1. Tariffs trigger "stagflation expectations", leaving the Federal Reserve in a dilemma. If Trump's tariff policy is fully implemented, the effective tariff rate in the U.S. will soar from 2.4% to 25.1%, directly surpassing the levels during the Great Depression in 1930. China International Capital Corporation warns that this could lead to "stagflation" in the U.S. economy, while the Federal Reserve oscillates between cutting and raising interest rates, resembling "dancing square dance on a tightrope."
2. Technical Aspect "Door Painting Market": The Destiny of CME Gap Filling In March, Bitcoin once surged to $95,000 due to the "Trump Crypto Reserve Plan", but on-chain data revealed the truth: this carnival was entirely supported by futures leverage, and the whales had already offloaded their assets with the good news. Subsequently, the CME futures gap was filled, and the price plummeted to $77,000, perfectly illustrating the crypto world's law that "the sharper the rise, the sharper the fall."
3. Retail investors' faith collapses: The "wash trading game" between the primary market and the whales is well understood by seasoned investors in the crypto world. The wash trading routine consists of three steps: the primary market and secondary market mutually cutting each other (project parties running away vs. exchanges manipulating prices); market makers "big fish eat small fish" (for example, a certain exchange had a flash crash of $580 million overnight); finally, the stablecoin "mass exodus" (the USDT/BTC trading ratio skyrocketed to 67%). This time, the whales even used the "tariff" script, which can be described as a "dimensionality reduction strike."

Is the 8xxx level the bottom? Is there still hope for $100,000?
Short-term: Pay attention to the tariff negotiations and non-farm data on April 9. If the negotiations bring good news, Bitcoin may take the opportunity to rebound, but be wary of "false breakthroughs". From a technical perspective, there is strong support at 82k-83k, while key resistance is at 93,000-97,000 USD, and the "ultimate liquidity point" is still aimed at 100,000-105,000 USD. However, the options market has 700 contracts of 79,000 USD put options watching closely, and the bears clearly have no intention of backing down.
Medium to Long Term: Economic Recession VS Policy Bailout If the US economy truly falls into recession, Bitcoin may replicate the "liquidity bull" market of 2020; however, if stagflation becomes a reality, risk assets may collectively "get liquidated." The only good news is: if Trump's "crypto strategic reserve" is implemented, it may become a lifeline.
 
How to survive in the "tariff storm"?
1. Don't go against the Federal Reserve: Interest rate policy is still the guiding indicator, rate cuts = good news, rate hikes = run fast!
2. Keep a close eye on on-chain data: whale transfers and stablecoin flow are more reliable than "rumors."
3. Leverage is poison: liquidation orders prove that contract players are the real "high-risk profession."